Name: UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)
End: 2026-04-19T03:59:59.999Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $102.43K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $102.43K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	51%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	51%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	51%
Will Mitch Raposo win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	50%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	50%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Allan Nascimento win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$102.43K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Allan Nascimento" if Allan Nascimento is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026. It will resolve to "Mitch Raposo" if Mitch Raposo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 2, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be off

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 19, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Allan Nascimento" if Allan Nascimento is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026.

It will resolve to "Mitch Raposo" if Mitch Raposo is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 2, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be off

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mitch Raposo defeats Allan Nascimento at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight ends in a draw or by disqual"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $216.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mitch Raposo win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Allan Nascimento win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $210
  DATA: [Over: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Over: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $21.4K
  DATA: [Over: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

Volume$102.43K

Markets8

8 of 8

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will Mitch Raposo win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will Mitch Raposo win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mitch Raposo defeats Allan Nascimento at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqual

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by submission?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight be won by submission?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Allan Nascimento and Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it wil

POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Allan Nascimento and Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws de

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Allan Nascimento and Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a

POLYMARKET

Will Allan Nascimento win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will Allan Nascimento win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Allan Nascimento defeats Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqual

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Closes

1d 16h remaining

Apr 19, 2026 3:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/JjN33L" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

Markets (8)

Will Mitch Raposo win by KO or TKO?

Will Mitch Raposo win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Allan Nascimento win by KO or TKO?

Will Allan Nascimento win by KO or TKO?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market