This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Name: Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.01M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Vol

$5.01M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.01M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.01M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

20 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Poly	33%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	21%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

33%

Top Probability

$5.01M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (79 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.01M
* **Total Liquidity:** $641.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.81)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $215.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $80.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $293.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $722.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $316.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $129.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $211.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $221.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $195.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $185.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $166.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $74.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $591.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $378.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $307.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $186.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $228.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $135.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $127.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $244.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics