Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Name: Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
End: 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.72K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Vol

$3.72K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.72K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.72K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 6%-10%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 6%-10%?	Poly	34%
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?	Poly	28%
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 3%-6%?	Poly	25%
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by at least 15%?	Poly	24%
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by less than 3%?	Poly	14%
Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

34%

Top Probability

$3.72K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 26, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the abs"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by at least 15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $405
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $609
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 6%-10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $545
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by 3%-6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $591
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by less than 3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $741
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $824
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld