US bank failure by March 31? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

US bank failure by March 31?

Name: US bank failure by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$126.13K

Events

Markets

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US bank failure by March 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $126.13K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $126.13K

100%

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1 market tracked

US bank failure by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
US bank failure by March 31?	Poly	100%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$126.13K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between November 11 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US bank failure by March 31?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (30 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between November 11 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between November 11 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $126.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $19.2K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.58)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US bank failure by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $126.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

29d 10h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

Polymarket

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US bank failure by March 31?

US bank failure by March 31?

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US bank failure by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)