This prediction market topic concerns whether any United States bank will fail between November 11, 2025, and March 31, 2026, as determined by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's official 'Failed Bank List.' The market resolves to 'Yes' if the FDIC records a bank closure within that specific timeframe, otherwise it resolves to 'No.' This question emerges against a backdrop of heightened scrutiny on the U.S. banking sector following the regional banking crisis of 2023, which saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. These failures, the largest since the 2008 financial crisis, exposed vulnerabilities related to interest rate risk, uninsured deposit concentrations, and rapid deposit outflows facilitated by digital banking. The specified date range covers a critical period that includes the end of a fiscal year and the first quarter of the next, a time when financial stress can become more apparent as institutions report annual results and regulators conduct examinations. Interest in this market stems from ongoing concerns about commercial real estate exposure, potential economic softening, and the lingering effects of monetary policy tightening, making it a forward-looking indicator of financial stability.

Historical Context

The modern framework for U.S. bank failures was established by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's creation in 1933 during the Great Depression, which also introduced deposit insurance. The most severe crisis in recent history was the 2008-2009 financial crisis, which triggered 489 bank failures between 2008 and 2013, including Washington Mutual, the largest failure in U.S. history. This period led to major regulatory reforms, most notably the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010, which imposed stricter capital and stress testing requirements on larger banks. A period of relative stability followed, with only a handful of minor failures annually until 2023. In March 2023, the sudden collapses of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 and Signature Bank on March 12 marked a dramatic return of systemic stress. These were the second and third largest bank failures in U.S. history, respectively, driven by a combination of interest rate risk, poor risk management, and social media-fueled bank runs. First Republic Bank failed in May 2023, becoming the fourth largest failure. This sequence demonstrated that vulnerabilities persisted despite post-2008 reforms, particularly among regional banks, and reset the regulatory and market landscape.

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