This prediction market addresses whether any U.S. state legislature will vote on a measure advocating for secession from the United States by June 30, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if any legislative chamber, as part of its standard process, votes on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose primary purpose is to initiate or declare support for the state's withdrawal from the union. This topic sits at the intersection of constitutional law, political theory, and contemporary American political polarization. While secession is widely considered legally settled as impermissible following the Civil War and Supreme Court precedent, symbolic or exploratory legislative actions have periodically emerged, often as political statements rather than genuine attempts at dissolution. Recent years have seen increased rhetorical calls for secession or 'national divorce' from certain political factions, particularly following contentious elections or federal policy disputes. This market gauges whether such rhetoric will translate into formal legislative action at the state level, reflecting deeper currents of political alienation and regional division within the United States. Interest stems from observers monitoring the stability of the federal system, the boundaries of political discourse, and the potential for symbolic challenges to national unity to gain institutional traction.

Historical Context

The legal and historical context of state secession is defined by the American Civil War (1861-1865). Following the secession of eleven Southern states and the formation of the Confederacy, the war concluded with the defeat of the secessionist cause. The Supreme Court subsequently ruled in Texas v. White (1869) that the union of states was 'indissoluble' and that secession was constitutionally invalid. This established the precedent that states cannot unilaterally leave the Union. In the modern era, secessionist sentiment has largely been confined to symbolic or fringe movements, though it occasionally surfaces in political rhetoric. For example, following the re-election of President Barack Obama in 2012, secession petitions from all 50 states were filed on the White House's 'We the People' website, though none garnered an official response advocating for secession. The 2021 filing of the Texas independence referendum bill was a more formal, though unsuccessful, legislative attempt. Historically, these movements gain brief traction during periods of intense national political conflict but are consistently blocked by legal precedent, political consensus, and the immense practical barriers to dissolution.

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