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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the
Prediction markets currently price a Democratic victory in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election as near-certain, with the "Yes" share on Polymarket trading at 94%. This price implies a 94% probability, indicating the market views a Democratic win as the overwhelming favorite. The Republican option trades at just 6%, reflecting extreme skepticism about a GOP upset. It is important to note that trading volume is thin at approximately $3,000, which can sometimes amplify price swings on new information.
Two structural and historical factors justify this lopsided pricing. First, Hawaii is one of the most consistently Democratic states in the nation. A Republican has not been elected governor since 2002 (Linda Lingle), and the Democratic Party holds all major statewide offices and overwhelming majorities in the state legislature. Second, the specific electoral mechanism matters. Hawaii's gubernatorial race is not a direct popular vote but is decided by a plurality, and the state's strong partisan lean makes it exceptionally difficult for a Republican to assemble a winning coalition without a significant national wave or a deeply flawed Democratic candidate.
The primary threat to the current consensus would be a divisive Democratic primary that produces a weak or scandal-plagued nominee, potentially depressing base turnout. A popular, well-funded moderate Republican candidate could then narrow the gap, though a victory would remain a historic upset. The odds may see volatility around the candidate filing deadline and the August 2026 primary election, which will define the final matchup. Given the thin market liquidity, any credible polling showing a competitive race in late 2025 or 2026 could cause a sharp, though likely temporary, adjustment in these probabilities.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Hawaii Governor Election Winner prediction market focuses on forecasting the outcome of the 2026 gubernatorial election in the state of Hawaii. This political contest will determine who succeeds Governor Josh Green, whose first term concludes in December 2026. The market resolves based on the certified winner of the general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, with candidates representing the Democratic and Republican parties as the initial options. The election will be a critical test of Hawaii's political landscape, which has been dominated by the Democratic Party for decades, and could signal shifts in voter priorities regarding issues like tourism management, housing affordability, and climate resilience. Interest in this market stems from its role as an early indicator of potential political change in a historically blue state, the economic implications of gubernatorial leadership for the islands' key industries, and the national attention on Hawaii's unique challenges and electoral dynamics. Observers are closely watching for candidate announcements and early polling to gauge whether the Republican Party can mount a competitive challenge or if internal Democratic dynamics will produce a contentious primary.
Hawaii's gubernatorial elections have been overwhelmingly dominated by the Democratic Party since statehood in 1959. The last Republican to serve as governor was Linda Lingle, who was elected in 2002 and re-elected in 2006, serving two terms. Her victory was an anomaly, attributed largely to her moderate image and a split in the Democratic vote. Since Lingle left office in 2010, Democrats have won four consecutive gubernatorial elections (Neil Abercrombie in 2010, David Ige in 2014 and 2018, and Josh Green in 2022). The 2022 Democratic primary was particularly competitive, featuring then-Lieutenant Governor Josh Green, former First Lady Vicky Cayetano, and business leader Keith Amemiya, with Green ultimately winning the primary and general election. This pattern of Democratic dominance is rooted in the party's alignment with Hawaii's labor unions, its historical role in the post-statehood political establishment, and its support from a diverse multi-ethnic electorate. The 2026 election will test whether this historical pattern holds or if changing demographics and new issues create an opening for a political shift.
The outcome of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election will have profound implications for the state's policy direction on its most pressing challenges. The governor sets the agenda for managing Hawaii's tourism-dependent economy, which must balance visitor industry revenue with the impacts of over-tourism on local communities and the environment. Housing policy is another critical area, as the state has the nation's highest cost of living, driven by exorbitant housing prices that force many residents to leave. The governor will also lead the state's long-term recovery and resilience planning following the devastating 2023 Maui wildfires, a process involving billions in federal aid and complex rebuilding decisions. Furthermore, the election is a barometer for the Democratic Party's strength in a state it has controlled for generations. A competitive Republican challenge could signal changing voter attitudes, while a contentious Democratic primary might reveal fractures within the party's coalition. The winner will influence Hawaii's approach to climate change, healthcare, and education, directly affecting the lives of its 1.4 million residents.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race is in its earliest stages, with no official candidates having declared their intention to run. Potential candidates are likely conducting private polling, fundraising assessments, and coalition-building behind the scenes. The political landscape is currently shaped by Governor Josh Green's ongoing term, his administration's handling of the Maui wildfire recovery, and the state legislature's actions on housing and cost-of-living issues. The Hawaii Democratic Party is expected to see a competitive primary, while the Republican Party is assessing its bench of potential candidates. The filing deadline for candidates is not until mid-2026, so the field will likely remain fluid for many months, with formal announcements expected throughout 2025.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The primary election, where parties select their nominees, will be held on Saturday, August 8, 2026.
To run for governor of Hawaii, a candidate must be at least 30 years old, a U.S. citizen, a Hawaii resident for at least five consecutive years preceding the election, and not have been convicted of certain felony crimes. They must also file nomination papers and meet signature requirements.
No, Governor Josh Green cannot run for re-election in 2026. Hawaii law limits governors to two consecutive four-year terms. Governor Green was elected to his first term in 2022, making him term-limited after the 2026 election.
The major issues are expected to include housing affordability and homelessness, the management and impacts of tourism, economic diversification, climate change and environmental protection, recovery from the 2023 Maui wildfires, and the high cost of living. Healthcare and education are also perennial concerns.
The prediction market allows participants to trade shares based on their forecasts of who will win the election. The market will resolve to the candidate officially certified as the winner by the Hawaii Office of Elections after the November 2026 election. Prices reflect the market's aggregated probability of each outcome.
The last Republican to win the Hawaii governor's race was Linda Lingle, who was re-elected in 2006. No Republican has won the office since then, with Democrats winning the elections in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 94% |
 | Poly | 6% |
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