US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31? | PredictPedia

This event has ended. Showing historical data.

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?

Name: US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$105.76K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $105.76K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $105.76K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$105.76K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the US and Venezuela between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Hum

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the US and Venezuela between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Hum

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the US and Venezuela between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $105.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.8K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.95)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $105.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

0¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Jw_ukx" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?

US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)