Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to a US-Venezuela ceasefire by January 31, 2026. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share trades at approximately 3¢, implying just a 3% chance of an official agreement. This pricing indicates the market views a formal, publicly announced ceasefire as highly unlikely within the next 16 days. The thin trading volume of $79,000 suggests this is a niche market with limited participant conviction, further underscoring the consensus view against a near-term diplomatic breakthrough.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary geopolitical realities are suppressing the odds. First, there is no active, direct military conflict between the US and Venezuela to cease. The adversarial relationship is characterized by comprehensive US sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and support for Venezuela's opposition, not sustained armed engagement. A formal ceasefire typically follows active hostilities, making the market's premise unusual. Second, the Maduro government's conditions for any major diplomatic deal, such as the permanent lifting of all US sanctions and recognition of his 2024 election victory, are non-starters for the current US administration. Recent diplomatic engagements have focused narrowly on migration and energy flows, not a broader military de-escalation.

What Could Change These Odds

A dramatic, unforeseen escalation into direct military confrontation would be the necessary precursor to make a ceasefire both relevant and possible, but this is a remote tail risk. A more plausible, though still unlikely, catalyst would be a sudden, secretive diplomatic breakthrough tied to Venezuela's 2024 presidential election aftermath or a major shift in US foreign policy following the 2024 US election. Any official joint statement from the US State Department and Venezuela's Foreign Ministry hinting at de-escalation talks would cause the "Yes" share to spike. However, with the resolution date just over two weeks away, there is no scheduled diplomatic event significant enough to materially alter the current 3% probability. The market is effectively pricing in continued frozen hostility.