Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1? | PredictPedia

GroupPOLYMARKET

Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?

Total Volume

$87.82K

Events

1

Markets

1

Trade on Polymarket

Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?

Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

1

markets · $87.82K

Kalshi

0

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

0

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $87.82K

100%

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1 market tracked

Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?	Poly	24%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

24%

Top Probability

$87.82K

Volume

1

Markets

1

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total USD value of Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1 is greater than $200M. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be the “Daily Buybacks” table on https://hyperscreener.asxn.xyz/revenue. The sum of the “Notional Amount” (USD) values from January 1 through March 31 will be used. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market

Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Hyperliquid executing over $200 million in buybacks during the first quarter. With shares trading at 24¢, the market implies roughly a 24% chance of the event occurring. This pricing suggests traders view the $200M threshold as an ambitious target that is more likely to be missed than achieved, though not entirely impossible. The market has seen moderate interest with $88,000 in volume, but liquidity remains relatively thin, which can lead to price volatility.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The primary factor suppressing the odds is the sheer scale of the $200M target relative to Hyperliquid's historical and projected revenue. Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual futures exchange, funds its buyback program directly from protocol revenue. Achieving $200M in Q1 buybacks would require an extraordinary and sustained surge in trading activity and fees. Current market skepticism likely stems from analyzing typical daily buyback figures, which would need to average over $2.2 million daily throughout the quarter to hit the target. While Hyperliquid has grown significantly, consistently generating that level of surplus revenue represents a major acceleration from established trends.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds could shift dramatically based on crypto market volatility and Hyperliquid's user adoption. A sustained bull market leading to a massive influx of trading volume and fees on the platform would be the most direct catalyst for increased buybacks. Key dates to watch are weekly revenue reports and the daily updates to the official resolution source. If early January data shows buybacks significantly exceeding the required daily run-rate, the market probability could quickly reprice upward. Conversely, if activity is muted in early Q1, the current low odds could solidify further. The resolution will be determined by the sum of the "Notional Amount" from the designated dashboard for January 1 through March 31.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Overview

This prediction market topic concerns whether Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual futures exchange built on its own Layer 1 blockchain, will execute token buybacks exceeding $200 million in value during the first quarter of the calendar year. The resolution depends on the sum of the 'Notional Amount' in USD recorded in the 'Daily Buybacks' table on the third-party analytics site hyperscreener.asxn.xyz, specifically for the period from January 1 through March 31. Hyperliquid's buyback mechanism is a core feature of its tokenomics, directly funded by a portion of the protocol's trading fees. The program is designed to create a deflationary pressure on its native HL token by permanently removing tokens from circulation, theoretically increasing scarcity and value for remaining holders. Interest in this metric is high because it serves as a transparent, real-time indicator of the protocol's financial performance and user adoption, with the Q1 target representing a significant acceleration from historical levels. Market participants use this data to gauge the health of the decentralized finance (DeFi) derivatives sector and the competitive position of Hyperliquid against centralized exchanges and other decentralized perpetuals platforms.

Historical Context

Hyperliquid launched its mainnet in early 2023, introducing a novel high-performance L1 blockchain specifically for perpetual trading. Its buyback program was instituted from the outset, with a mechanism that allocates a significant percentage of all trading fees to market purchases of HL tokens. Historically, buyback volumes have been closely correlated with overall crypto market volatility and trading activity. For example, during periods of high volatility in late 2023, daily buybacks frequently exceeded $1 million. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a notable increase, with monthly totals climbing steadily, setting a precedent that makes a $200 million Q1 2024 target ambitious but plausible if growth continues. The concept of buybacks is borrowed from traditional corporate finance but executed via smart contracts in DeFi, with protocols like OlympusDAO pioneering similar mechanisms earlier. Hyperliquid's approach is distinct for its direct linkage to derivatives trading fees and its use as a primary value accrual method for its token, unlike staking or fee-sharing models used by other exchanges.

Why It Matters

The scale of Hyperliquid's buybacks matters significantly for the broader DeFi ecosystem. It represents a measurable test of whether a decentralized derivatives platform can generate sustainable, fee-based revenue comparable to its centralized counterparts. A Q1 total exceeding $200 million would signal robust adoption and could attract further capital and developers to the on-chain perpetuals niche, validating its economic model. Conversely, a shortfall might indicate challenges in user acquisition or retention amid intense competition. For the crypto economy, large, automated buyback programs create a new type of systematic buyer in the market, one that is active regardless of price sentiment, which can introduce unique stability or reflexivity into token markets. This impacts not only HL holders but also provides a case study for other projects designing tokenomics, influencing how future protocols structure their value distribution and treasury management strategies.

Current Status

As of the beginning of Q1 2024, Hyperliquid's buyback program is operational and being tracked daily by the hyperscreener.asxn.xyz dashboard. The crypto market has entered the new year with anticipation around potential Bitcoin ETF approvals and shifting macroeconomic conditions, factors that heavily influence trading volume across all derivatives platforms. Early January data will provide the first concrete evidence of whether daily buyback rates are on a trajectory to meet the quarterly target. The protocol continues to onboard new users and integrate with other DeFi applications, which could positively impact volume. Market participants are closely monitoring the daily notional amounts published on the resolution source to inform their positions in the prediction market.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Hyperliquid's buyback program work?

A portion of every trading fee paid on the Hyperliquid exchange is automatically diverted to a smart contract. This contract uses the accumulated funds to continuously purchase HL tokens from the open market on decentralized exchanges. The purchased tokens are then sent to a burn address or otherwise permanently removed from circulation.

What happens if the hyperscreener.asxn.xyz website goes down?

According to the market description, if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on the best available alternative data, as determined by the market operator. Typically, this would involve using on-chain data directly from the Hyperliquid blockchain to calculate the buyback total.

Why is $200 million a significant threshold for Q1 buybacks?

The $200 million figure represents a substantial quarterly run rate, implying annualized buybacks of $800 million. Hitting this target would demonstrate explosive growth in protocol usage and revenue, far exceeding historical performance and signaling Hyperliquid's potential to become a top-tier derivatives venue.

Can the Hyperliquid Foundation manipulate the buyback data?

The buyback process is executed by permissionless smart contracts on the Hyperliquid L1. While the foundation manages the treasury, the on-chain transactions for buying and burning tokens are public and verifiable by anyone, making direct manipulation of the fundamental data extremely difficult.

How does this buyback compare to stock buybacks by traditional companies?

The mechanism is conceptually similar, as both aim to return value to holders by reducing supply. However, Hyperliquid's buyback is fully automated by code, funded exclusively by real-time transaction fees, and the tokens are permanently destroyed (burned) rather than held in a treasury.

Was this helpful?

Updated Jan 15, 2026

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 1, 2026 (76 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total USD value of Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1 is greater than $200M. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be the “Daily Buybacks” table on https://hyperscreener.asxn.xyz/revenue. The sum of the “Notional Amount” (USD) values from January 1 through March 31 will be used.

Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total USD value of Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1 is greater than $200M. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be the “Daily Buybacks” table on https://hyperscreener.asxn.xyz/revenue. The sum of the “Notional Amount” (USD) values from Ja"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $87.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.2K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 72.58)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2026): Vol $87.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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