$3.80M
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$3.80M
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154
128 markets tracked
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| 96% | 95% | 2% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound w
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether former President Donald Trump will mention specific places during his 2026 State of the Union address, should he be elected and deliver one. The market resolves based on whether Trump utters particular place names, with their plural or possessive forms also counting. Video footage will be the primary resolution method, supplemented by official transcripts from designated news publications if needed. This market belongs to a broader category of political prediction markets that track rhetorical patterns and policy signaling in major presidential speeches. Interest stems from the analytical value of place mentions, which often indicate policy priorities, political messaging targets, or responses to current events. For instance, mentioning 'Ukraine' might signal foreign policy stance, while 'Detroit' could relate to economic or industrial policy. Observers analyze these mentions to gauge administration focus areas and political strategy. The 2026 address would be Trump's first State of the Union of a potential second term, making the content closely watched for signals about his policy direction compared to his first term.
The State of the Union address is a constitutionally rooted tradition (Article II, Section 3) where the President reports on the nation's condition. Modern addresses are televised and highly scripted, making them predictable subjects for analysis. Tracking place mentions has historical precedent. For example, President George W. Bush mentioned 'Afghanistan' and 'Iraq' frequently in his 2002-2006 addresses during those wars. President Barack Obama mentioned 'Detroit' in his 2012 address following the auto industry bailout. For Donald Trump, analysis of his previous State of the Union speeches reveals patterns. His 2018 address mentioned 'North Korea' 4 times amid nuclear diplomacy. His 2019 speech named 'China' explicitly in the context of trade negotiations. His 2020 address referenced 'the Southern Border' multiple times while discussing immigration. These mentions were not random; they correlated directly with headline policy issues of each year. The practice of betting on or predicting specific content elements of major political speeches gained traction with the rise of prediction markets like PredictIt in the 2010s and Kalshi in the 2020s, which allow users to trade shares on event outcomes. The specific mechanism of resolving on a spoken word or phrase uses precedents from similar markets on debate mentions or specific policy announcements.
The specific places a president chooses to mention in a nationally televised prime-time speech signal administrative and political priorities to Congress, foreign governments, the media, and the public. A mention can imply forthcoming policy actions, allocate symbolic importance, or appeal to specific voter demographics. For markets and policymakers, analyzing these mentions provides a quantifiable data point on focus areas. For the cities, states, or countries mentioned, it can have tangible effects. A positive mention of a U.S. city might boost local morale or attract investment attention; a critical mention of a foreign nation can affect diplomatic relations or financial markets. The prediction market itself matters as a collective intelligence tool, aggregating dispersed knowledge about likely speech content based on current events, the President's known fixations, and speechwriting patterns. The market's odds can serve as a publicly visible forecast of what topics are considered most salient for the administration at that moment.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for the November 2024 presidential election. The outcome of that election will determine whether he delivers a State of the Union address in 2026. Current political discourse and global events suggest potential candidate places for mention in a 2026 speech, should Trump be president, include Ukraine (due to ongoing war), Gaza (Israel-Hamas conflict), Taiwan (U.S.-China tensions), and U.S. cities affected by domestic issues like crime or immigration. Speechwriting for a potential 2026 address would not begin in earnest until late 2025, following the 2024 election results and the first year of a potential second term's events.
A mention requires the exact word or phrase, or its plural or possessive form, to be spoken by Donald Trump during the address. For example, 'Texas', 'Texas's', or 'Texans' would all count for a market on 'Texas'. Grammatical inflections like 'American' for 'America' typically would not count unless specified.
Resolution typically relies on official video recordings of the event as the primary source. If video analysis is inconclusive, designated official transcripts from news organizations like the Associated Press or Reuters are used. Market operators like Kalshi have final determination based on this evidence.
In his 2018-2020 addresses, Trump frequently mentioned geopolitical locations like North Korea and China, and domestic themes like 'the Southern Border'. Specific U.S. cities included Detroit and Pittsburgh, often in the context of economic revival.
Yes, any words spoken by Trump during the delivered State of the Union address count, whether they are part of the prepared text or spontaneous additions. The resolution is based on the audio-video record of the live speech.
Participants use prediction markets to express informed views on political priorities and current events. The trading odds aggregate crowd-sourced intelligence about what topics are most likely to be emphasized, which can be valuable for analysts, journalists, and policymakers.
Prediction market contracts have specific rules for such contingencies. Typically, if the 2026 State of the Union address does not occur as scheduled due to postponement or cancellation, the market may resolve as 'No' for all specific place mentions, or be canceled entirely, depending on the platform's contract terms.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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Feb 24, 2026 If Donald Trump says X as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes. Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State of the Union will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwis
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound w
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the spec
If Donald Trump says China as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State of the U
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the spec
If Donald Trump says Iran as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State of the Un
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