Most popular AI this week
K 513.32 contracts
1
7
Most popular AI this week
K 513.32 contracts
1
7
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is DeepSeek at 92.5%.
Kalshi
- DeepSeek92.5%
- Z.ai2%
- Xiaomi2%
- Tencent1.5%
- OpenAI1.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 513.32 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 26, 2026 If X is the Highest usage model company model on OpenRouter Top Model by weekly usage on week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This event will resolve based on the updated values for the week of Oct 26, 2026. The "Highest usage model company" refers to the model author company of the single model with the greatest weekly token volume as displayed on the OpenRouter Top Models chart, not the company with the greatest aggregate token volume across all of its models. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/, the number of candidates tied, rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks which model author company will have the highest usage on the OpenRouter Top Models chart for the week of Oct 19, 2026. A market resolves to Yes if its company is the one with the single model that has "the greatest weekly token volume as displayed on the OpenRouter Top Models chart." The rule explicitly excludes "the company with the greatest aggregate token volume across all of its models" [1]. A company with many models could therefore lose to a rival whose single model ranks higher.
Ties follow the publisher's tie-breaking method if one exists. Otherwise, "all tied entities share the highest rank among them," and if several candidates tie, their contracts "will resolve to $1/, the number of candidates tied, rounded down" [1]. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The source lists the event end time as "not supplied," but each market record shows an end date of 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-23T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 03:49:58Z. It shows seven markets, one for each named company, all with status "active" [1]. Yes prices were DeepSeek 0.965, Xiaomi 0.02, OpenAI 0.02, Google 0.02, Anthropic 0.02, Z.ai 0.015, and Tencent 0.015 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They may have changed since retrieval.
The DeepSeek contract's Yes and No prices sum to about 1.00 in this snapshot. The other companies' prices are low and close to each other, but the differences between them are small and should not be read as a ranking of likelihood. Each contract is a separate binary question, and the seven prices should not be averaged or combined into a single figure. The sample includes all seven saved markets for this event, so no omitted outcomes are hidden inside this view [1].
The snapshot does not include volume, trading activity, or the number of participants, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The source does not explain why prices are where they are, and this summary does not infer a cause. It also does not confirm the weekly OpenRouter values, which the contract will use to resolve, because those values are not included in the evidence. The sample warning states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A reader should check the live contract rules and current prices directly before drawing any conclusion.
References
- Kalshi: Most popular AI this week. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This article covers a Kalshi event titled "Most popular AI this week," which is tied to the week of October 19, 2026. The contract asks which model author company will have the highest rank on the OpenRouter Top Models chart by weekly usage. If the company named in a given contract is the top entry for that week, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules define "Highest usage model company" as the model author company of the single model with the greatest weekly token volume on that chart. The rules specifically exclude a ranking based on the combined token volume of all of a company's models [1]. The event is framed around a single week's ranking, not a running total. The source states that resolution will be based on the updated values for the week of October 19, 2026 [1]. The rules also say that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The provider record shows the event as active, but its listed end time was not supplied [1]. The contract's date range in the market data is a closing field for the trading contract, and it should not be read as an announced publication or resolution date. The rules include a tie-breaking method. Tied rankings are resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology if one exists. If no such methodology exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If several candidates are tied for a given rank, their contracts resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down [1]. Traders reading a tied outcome should check the chart's own methodology at resolution, since the contract depends on it.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which model author company has the single model with the greatest weekly token volume on the OpenRouter Top Models chart for the week of October 19, 2026 [1]. Because it counts the top single model rather than all models owned by a company, a company with many smaller models can lose to one company with a single heavily used model [1]. The contract therefore reflects a specific ranking method rather than general popularity or market share. The market snapshot in this article lists seven company contracts for this event, with DeepSeek priced highest among them in the saved data. Those prices are snapshots of observed values at a single time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome. The saved sample includes all seven markets for this event, but the event rules do not show that every real-world candidate company is covered [1]. A lower price on one contract should not be read as proof that an omitted company has a particular chance of winning.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract measure?
It measures which model author company owns the single model with the greatest weekly token volume on the OpenRouter Top Models chart for the week of October 19, 2026 [1].
Does the company's total usage across all its models count?
No. The rules say the ranking is based on the single model with the greatest weekly token volume, not the aggregate token volume of all models from one company [1].
How are tied rankings handled?
Ties are resolved by the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology when one exists. If none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them, and if several candidates tie for a rank, their contracts resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down [1].
Is the market's price the same as the chance of winning?
The price is a snapshot of an observed value and is not a verified probability or an executable quote. The saved data does not establish a probability for any outcome [1].
When does the event end?
The provider record does not supply a listed end time for the event [1]. The market data contains a contract closing field, but that field is not an announced resolution date.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
