Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Highest third-place vote share in a 2026 Senate race?

Name: Highest third-place vote share in a 2026 Senate race?
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

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Highest third-place vote share in a 2026 Senate race?

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3 markets tracked

Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?	Poly	71%
Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 8% of the vote in 2026?	Poly	60%
Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 12% of the vote in 2026?	Poly	60%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

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About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the vote share received by a third-place candidate in any of the 2026 U.S. Senate elections considered by this market is equal to or greater than the specified vote share. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The third-place candidate in each election is the candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in that election. Aggregated write-in or "scattering" totals that are not attrib

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest third-place vote share in a 2026 Senate race?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (24 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the vote share received by a third-place candidate in any of the 2026 U.S. Senate elections considered by this market is equal to or greater than the specified vote share. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The third-place candidate in each election is the candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in that election. Aggregated write-in or "scattering" totals that are not attrib

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the vote share received by a third-place candidate in any of the 2026 U.S. Senate elections considered by this market is equal to or greater than the specified vote share. Otherwise, it wil"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $207
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 8% of the vote in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 12% of the vote in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics