Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on September 3?

Name: Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on September 3?
End: 2026-09-03T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$668.36

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on September 3?

Vol

$668.36

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $668.36

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $668.36

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 on September 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 on September 3?	Poly	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$668.36

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on September 3, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on September 3?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on September 3, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

For a standard full trading session, the 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on September 3, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exac"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 83.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 on September 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 3, 2026): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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