GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

S&P price at year-end?

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S&P price at year-end?

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Polymarket

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0.0%avg

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17 markets tracked

Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

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Single-Platform Markets(17)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	77%
Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	76%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	71%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	68%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	67%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	65%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	56%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7700 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	48%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7800 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	48%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7600 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	47%
Will the S&P 500 be above 8000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	35%
Will the S&P 500 be above 8100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	32%
Will the S&P 500 be above 8300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	32%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	31%
Will the S&P 500 be above 8400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	19%
Will the S&P 500 be above 8200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	19%
Will the S&P 500 be above 8500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?	Kalshi	18%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

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About This Event

On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above X then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** S&P price at year-end? 
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above X then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 8500, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the S&P 500 be above 8500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the S&P 500 be above 8400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the S&P 500 be above 8300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the S&P 500 be above 8200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the S&P 500 be above 8100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the S&P 500 be above 8000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the S&P 500 be above 7900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the S&P 500 be above 7800 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the S&P 500 be above 7700 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the S&P 500 be above 7600 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the S&P 500 be above 7400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the S&P 500 be above 7300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

S&P price at year-end?

On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above X then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume$0.00

Markets17

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KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 7200, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 6900, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 7100, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.0¢No 32.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 7000, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 7500, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Average Yes Price

47¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/K7slJD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="S&P price at year-end? "></iframe>

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Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

S&P price at year-end?

Markets (17)

Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

S&P price at year-end?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

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