Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US building permits for September

Total Volume

$9.34K

Events

Markets

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US building permits for September

Vol

$9.34K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $9.34K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.34K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?	Kalshi	99%
Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.300M?	Kalshi	91%
Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.350M?	Kalshi	72%
Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.400M?	Kalshi	43%
Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.450M?	Kalshi	29%
Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.500M?	Kalshi	7%
Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.550M?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$9.34K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 2026 If the value of US building permits, total units, for September 2026 is above X SAAR, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first-published U.S. building permits value for September 2026, as released in the Census New Residential Construction report and reflected by Trading Economics on the initial release date. Later revised, final, or updated building permits releases, including the revised permits release approximately one week later, will not be used for reso

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US building permits for September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If the value of US building permits, total units, for September 2026 is above X SAAR, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first-published U.S. building permits value for September 2026, as released in the Census New Residential Construction report and reflected by Trading Economics on the initial release date. Later revised, final, or updated building permits releases, including the revised permits release approximately one week later, will not be used for reso

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the value of US building permits (total units) for September 2026 is above 1.550M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first-published U.S. building permits value for September 2026, as released in the Census New Residential Construction report and refle"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.550M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.500M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.450M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.400M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $526
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.350M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.300M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US building permits for September

Volume$9.34K

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?

If the value of US building permits (total units) for September 2026 is above 1.250M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first-published U.S. building permits value for September 2026, as released in the Census New Residential Construction report and refle

KALSHI

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.300M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.300M?

If the value of US building permits (total units) for September 2026 is above 1.300M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first-published U.S. building permits value for September 2026, as released in the Census New Residential Construction report and refle

KALSHI

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.350M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.350M?

If the value of US building permits (total units) for September 2026 is above 1.350M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first-published U.S. building permits value for September 2026, as released in the Census New Residential Construction report and refle

KALSHI

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.400M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.400M?

If the value of US building permits (total units) for September 2026 is above 1.400M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first-published U.S. building permits value for September 2026, as released in the Census New Residential Construction report and refle

KALSHI

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.450M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.450M?

If the value of US building permits (total units) for September 2026 is above 1.450M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first-published U.S. building permits value for September 2026, as released in the Census New Residential Construction report and refle

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US building permits for September

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Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?

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Events (1)

US building permits for September

Markets (7)

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.300M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.300M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.350M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.350M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.400M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.400M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.450M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.450M?

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Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US building permits for September

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.250M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.300M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.300M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.350M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.350M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.400M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.400M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.450M?

Will US building permits for September 2026 be above 1.450M?

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Discussion

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