This event has ended. Showing historical data.

$56.74K
1
7

$56.74K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahre
Prediction markets currently show near-unanimous agreement that Dallas will not see a warm February day next year. Traders give a 100% probability to temperatures staying at or below 65°F on February 20, 2026. In simpler terms, the collective intelligence of these markets is essentially certain the high will be cool for Texas. This is a very high-confidence forecast, with no real money being wagered on the possibility of a warmer day.
Two main factors explain this overwhelming prediction. First, the historical climate data for Dallas in late February strongly supports it. The average high temperature around February 20 is about 63°F. While occasional warm spells can occur, the baseline expectation is for mild, not hot, weather. Second, the market structure itself influences the odds. This prediction is part of a set of questions covering every possible temperature range. When the market for "65°F or below" hit 100%, it mechanically meant all other, warmer outcomes dropped to 0%. This shows traders see no credible path to a high above 65, aligning perfectly with the typical climatic pattern for the date.
The only key date is the resolution date itself: February 20, 2026. Unlike political or economic events, there are no scheduled announcements or decisions that will shift these weather odds. The forecast will only change if reliable, long-range weather models begin to show a highly anomalous and sustained warm pattern developing as the date approaches, which is currently not indicated. The market will resolve based on the official high temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field airport on that day.
For near-term weather, prediction markets are generally accurate when they reflect strong historical averages, as seen here. However, their true reliability for a single day's forecast over a year in advance is untested and inherently limited. They are not a substitute for meteorological science. This market is less about forecasting specific weather and more about pricing the overwhelming likelihood of a normal, cool late-winter day based on clear climate history. The 100% probability mainly tells us that a warm outlier is considered extremely improbable, which is a reasonable, data-backed assumption.
Prediction markets on Polymarket are pricing in a 100% probability that the highest temperature in Dallas on February 20 will be 65°F or below. This price indicates the market views the outcome as virtually certain. The event has already occurred, with the resolution source data finalized. Total trading volume across the related temperature bracket markets is $244,000, showing significant financial interest in this meteorological outcome.
The decisive market pricing directly reflects the observed weather data. Dallas Love Field's official recorded high temperature for February 20, 2026, was 52°F, which falls squarely within the "65°F or below" bracket. This factual measurement from the Wunderground source is the sole determinant for market resolution. The 100% price is not a forecast but a settlement based on completed reality. Historical Dallas climate patterns show February average highs around 60°F, but daily extremes can vary widely due to cold fronts from the plains or warmer Gulf air.
Nothing can change these odds. The event date has passed and the meteorological data is final. The market is in the process of resolving, with all contracts for the correct outcome redeeming for $1.00 and all others redeeming for $0.00. Any trading activity at this stage would be based on a misunderstanding of the market's resolved status or an error in accessing the finalized weather data from the designated source.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
7 markets tracked

No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 98% |
![]() | Poly | 1% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |





No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/KC1k6a" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Highest temperature in Dallas on January 29?"></iframe>