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Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?

Name: How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
End: 2026-09-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$10.61K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?

Vol

$10.61K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $10.61K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.61K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will 80 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 80 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?	Poly	95%
Will 100 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?	Poly	6%
Will 60 to 79 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?	Poly	2%
Will 170 to 199 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?	Poly	0%
Will fewer than 40 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 120 to 139 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 200 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 40 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$10.61K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornado"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.57)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 40 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $440
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 40 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $671
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 60 to 79 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 80 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 100 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 120 to 139 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $247
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $397
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will 170 to 199 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $440
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will 200 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $558
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience