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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

2026 World GDP Growth

Name: 2026 World GDP Growth
End: 2027-01-15T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$16.33K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

2026 World GDP Growth

Vol

$16.33K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $16.33K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.33K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Poly	45%
Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026?	Poly	31%
Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026?	Poly	28%
Will world GDP growth be 3.7%+ in 2026?	Poly	27%
Will world GDP growth be 3.4% in 2026?	Poly	8%
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	Poly	5%
Will world GDP growth be 3.5% in 2026?	Poly	5%
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

Top Probability

$16.33K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, August 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 World GDP Growth
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 15, 2027 (146 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. 

The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.3K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $405
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $368
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will world GDP growth be 3.4% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will world GDP growth be 3.5% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will world GDP growth be 3.7%+ in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $782
  DATA: [Yes: 26.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.1% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $452
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy