GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US trade deficit for 2026?

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US trade deficit for 2026?

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12 markets tracked

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?	Kalshi	93%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?	Kalshi	3%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion?	Kalshi	3%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?	Kalshi	2%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 45‎ billion and 54.9‎ billion?	Kalshi	2%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 140‎ billion and 170‎ billion?	Kalshi	2%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 105‎ billion and 119.5‎ billion?	Kalshi	2%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be below 45‎ billion?	Kalshi	2%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 85‎ billion and 94.9‎ billion?	Kalshi	2%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 55‎ billion and 64.9‎ billion?	Kalshi	2%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 120‎ billion and 139.9‎ billion?	Kalshi	2%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 75‎ billion and 84.9‎ billion?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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93%

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$0.00

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About This Event

2026 If US trade deficit for 2026 is between X billion and Y billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance, goods and services, for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US trade deficit for 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If US trade deficit for 2026 is between X billion and Y billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance, goods and services, for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the annual U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026. Early close condition: This mark"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be below 45‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 85‎ billion and 94.9‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 75‎ billion and 84.9‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 55‎ billion and 64.9‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 45‎ billion and 54.9‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 140‎ billion and 170‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 120‎ billion and 139.9‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 105‎ billion and 119.5‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US trade deficit for 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets12

12 of 12

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KALSHI

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?

If US trade deficit for 2026 is above 170‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026. Early close condition: This market

KALSHI

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?

If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the annual U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026. Early close condition: This mark

KALSHI

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion?

If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026. Early close cond

KALSHI

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?

If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026. Early close con

KALSHI

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 45‎ billion and 54.9‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 45‎ billion and 54.9‎ billion?

If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 45‎ billion and 54.9‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026. Early close cond

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Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?

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Events (1)

US trade deficit for 2026?

Markets (12)

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 45‎ billion and 54.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 45‎ billion and 54.9‎ billion?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US trade deficit for 2026?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 45‎ billion and 54.9‎ billion?

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 45‎ billion and 54.9‎ billion?

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