Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin?

Name: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin?
End: 2026-10-15T13:30:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.21K

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Markets

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin?

Vol

$6.21K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.21K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.21K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?	Poly	42%
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?	Poly	28%
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	Poly	26%
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin <66%?	Poly	4%
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 69%+?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

42%

Top Probability

$6.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to Taiwan Semiconductor's gross profit margin for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bra

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 15, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve according to Taiwan Semiconductor's gross profit margin for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.

The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bra

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to Taiwan Semiconductor's gross profit margin for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.

The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin <66%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $433
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 69%+?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $468
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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