
$6.83K
1
1

1 market tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Johnny Depp be casted in the next Pirates of the Caribbean? | Kalshi | 42% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before 2035 If Johnny Depp is cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a 42% probability that Johnny Depp will be cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean film before 2035. This price, trading exclusively on Kalshi with approximately $7,000 in volume, indicates the market views his return as a distinct possibility but slightly leaning against it. A 42% chance suggests the outcome is highly uncertain, with sentiment nearly balanced between yes and no.
The primary factor suppressing the probability is the very public and contentious legal battle between Depp and Disney, stemming from his 2020 libel case and his subsequent departure from the franchise. Disney executives testified during the trial that Depp would not be brought back, creating significant institutional headwinds. Conversely, the odds are not lower due to Depp's enduring fan support and the franchise's commercial struggle without its iconic lead. The underwhelming performance of other Pirates projects and the core audience's strong association of Captain Jack Sparrow with Depp provides a compelling business case for a reconciliation.
The most direct catalyst would be an official casting announcement from Disney, which would immediately resolve the market to "Yes." Conversely, a formal announcement of a reboot or new lead actor without Depp would cause the probability to plummet. The odds may also shift gradually based on industry reporting about Disney's creative direction for the franchise or any behind-the-scenes diplomatic mending of the relationship between Depp and the studio. Given the 2035 deadline, this is a long-dated speculative bet on a potential corporate and public relations reconciliation.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
$6.83K
1
1
This prediction market topic concerns whether actor Johnny Depp will reprise his iconic role as Captain Jack Sparrow in a future installment of the Pirates of the Caribbean film franchise before January 1, 2035. The question has become a focal point of industry speculation and fan debate following Depp's highly publicized legal battles with his ex-wife, Amber Heard, and his subsequent departure from the franchise. The topic intersects with broader discussions about Hollywood's response to allegations against major stars, the commercial viability of long-running franchises without their central figures, and the potential for career rehabilitation in the entertainment industry. Interest in this market stems from the significant financial stakes involved, the cultural impact of the character, and the ongoing narrative surrounding Depp's professional future, making it a barometer for public sentiment and industry risk assessment regarding controversial figures.
The Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, based on the Disney theme park ride, launched with 'The Curse of the Black Pearl' in 2003. Johnny Depp's portrayal of Captain Jack Sparrow became a global phenomenon, critically acclaimed and central to the series' commercial success. The original film trilogy concluded in 2007, with two subsequent sequels, 'On Stranger Tides' (2011) and 'Dead Men Tell No Tales' (2017), also starring Depp. The five films have collectively grossed over $4.5 billion worldwide, making it one of the highest-grossing film series of all time. In October 2018, during the production of the planned sixth film, Disney and Depp parted ways following Amber Heard's published allegations of abuse, which Depp denied. This occurred before Depp's 2020 UK libel case loss and his 2022 US trial victory against Heard. The franchise has been in developmental limbo since, with various scripts and concepts, including a female-led reboot, failing to move forward.
The outcome of this question carries significant economic implications. A new Pirates film with Johnny Depp would represent a major financial bet, likely requiring a production budget exceeding $200 million, with global box office potential in the billion-dollar range. His return would test whether a major star can fully rehabilitate their career in mainstream blockbuster cinema after serious public allegations and legal battles, setting a precedent for how studios manage talent controversies. For Disney, the decision involves balancing potential revenue against brand safety and corporate reputation, particularly for a family-oriented studio. A decision either way will signal Hollywood's current tolerance for risk and the enduring power of nostalgic IP versus the pressures of contemporary cultural accountability.
As of late 2024, the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise remains in active development at Disney, but no film has been officially greenlit. Producer Jerry Bruckheimer has confirmed he is working on two distinct scripts for a potential sixth film. In interviews throughout 2024, Bruckheimer expressed openness to Depp's return but deferred the final decision to Disney. There have been no official statements from Disney executives regarding renewed negotiations with Depp. The studio's immediate film slate does not include a Pirates project, suggesting any potential film with or without Depp is unlikely to release before 2026 at the earliest.
Disney removed Johnny Depp from the franchise in 2018 following domestic abuse allegations published by his then-wife, Amber Heard, in a Washington Post op-ed. This decision was made prior to the conclusion of their legal battles, which included a UK libel case in 2020 and a US defamation trial in 2022 where Depp largely prevailed.
In a June 2024 interview with Entertainment Weekly, Jerry Bruckheimer stated, 'We'll see. I would love it. I would love to have him in the movie. That's all that I can tell you.' He emphasized that the ultimate decision rests with Disney, not with him as the producer.
As of late 2024, no new Pirates of the Caribbean film has been officially greenlit for production by Disney. Producer Jerry Bruckheimer has confirmed that scripts are in development, but the studio has not announced a release date, filming schedule, or final cast.
The five Pirates of the Caribbean films starring Johnny Depp generated a combined global box office of approximately $4.5 billion. The most successful single film was 'Dead Man's Chest' (2006), which earned over $1.06 billion worldwide.
Disney has not announced any plans to recast the role of Captain Jack Sparrow. Early development discussions involved a female-led spin-off starring Margot Robbie, but that project is not currently moving forward. Any future film could focus on new characters within the franchise world.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/KX2oWk" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Johnny Depp be cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean?"></iframe>