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Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Name: Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$47.70K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Vol

$47.70K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $47.70K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $47.70K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Poly	89%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Poly	85%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Poly	73%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Poly	34%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$47.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $47.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.1K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.76)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $21.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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