GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Name: Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$63.98K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Vol

$63.98K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $63.98K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $63.98K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Poly	87%
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Poly	42%
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Poly	26%
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Poly	14%
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

Top Probability

$63.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equiv"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $64.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.8K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.16)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $28.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $15.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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