GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Over/Under 17%?

Name: Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Over/Under 17%?
End: 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$712.75

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Over/Under 17%?

Vol

$712.75

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $712.75

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $712.75

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Over/Under 17%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Over/Under 17%?	Poly	65%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

65%

Top Probability

$712.75

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Over/Under 17%?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 13, 2026 (8 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $713
* **Total Liquidity:** $143
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.97)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Over/Under 17%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $713
  DATA: [Over: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 35.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics