GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?

Name: What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?
End: 2026-09-30T04:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$77.27K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?

Vol

$77.27K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $77.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $77.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?	Poly	65%
Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30?	Poly	28%
Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?	Poly	7%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?	Poly	3%
Will the median home value in the US be between $440,000 and $447,000 on September 30?	Poly	0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $447,000 and $454,000 on September 30?	Poly	0%
Will the median home value in the US be at least $454,000 on September 30?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

65%

Top Probability

$77.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 30, 2026 (25 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the P"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $77.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $23.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $15.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $10.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $17.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the median home value in the US be between $440,000 and $447,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the median home value in the US be between $447,000 and $454,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the median home value in the US be at least $454,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $878
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy