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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Name: Dublin-Central By-Election Winner
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.04M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Vol

$1.04M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.04M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.04M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	74%
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	17%
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	3%
Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	2%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	1%
Will Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	1%
Will Malachy Steenson win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	0%
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	0%
Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	0%
Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	0%
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$1.04M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Dublin-Central By-Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-e"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.04M
* **Total Liquidity:** $65.4K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 15.97)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Malachy Steenson win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $19.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $52.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $181.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $30.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $11.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $42.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $15.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $22.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $499.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $153.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld