GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Highest temperature in Chicago on Jul 10, 2026?

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Highest temperature in Chicago on Jul 10, 2026?

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6 markets tracked

Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	44%
Will the high temp in Chicago be 83-84° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	26%
Will the high temp in Chicago be 79-80° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will the high temp in Chicago be 85-86° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will the high temp in Chicago be <79° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will the high temp in Chicago be >86° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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44%

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About This Event

On Jul 10, 2026 If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 10, 2026, is X than Y according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, Daily, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report, Daily, linked in t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Chicago on Jul 10, 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jul 10, 2026

If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 10, 2026, is X than Y according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, Daily, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report, Daily, linked in t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 10, 2026, is greater than 86° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the high temp in Chicago be >86° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the high temp in Chicago be <79° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the high temp in Chicago be 85-86° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the high temp in Chicago be 83-84° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the high temp in Chicago be 79-80° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

Highest temperature in Chicago on Jul 10, 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

6 of 6

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KALSHI

Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.0¢No 56.0¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 10, 2026, is between 81-82° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Go

KALSHI

Will the high temp in Chicago be 83-84° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the high temp in Chicago be 83-84° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 10, 2026, is between 83-84° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Go

KALSHI

Will the high temp in Chicago be 79-80° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the high temp in Chicago be 79-80° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 10, 2026, is between 79-80° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Go

KALSHI

Will the high temp in Chicago be 85-86° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the high temp in Chicago be 85-86° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 10, 2026, is between 85-86° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Go

KALSHI

Will the high temp in Chicago be <79° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the high temp in Chicago be <79° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 10, 2026, is less than 79° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Goo

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Kdd9a2" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Highest temperature in Chicago on Jul 10, 2026?"></iframe>

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Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?

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Events (1)

Highest temperature in Chicago on Jul 10, 2026?

Markets (6)

Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 83-84° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 83-84° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 79-80° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 79-80° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 85-86° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 85-86° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be <79° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be <79° on Jul 10, 2026?

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Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Highest temperature in Chicago on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 83-84° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 83-84° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 79-80° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 79-80° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 85-86° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be 85-86° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be <79° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the high temp in Chicago be <79° on Jul 10, 2026?

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