Texas's 31st congressional district is a competitive U.S. House seat that covers a large swath of Central Texas, including parts of Williamson County, Bell County, and Coryell County. The district includes the cities of Temple, Belton, and parts of Round Rock, as well as Fort Cavazos (formerly Fort Hood), one of the largest military installations in the world. The district has been represented by Republican John Carter since 2003, but its political lean has shifted in recent years as the suburbs of Austin have grown and diversified. The 2026 election for the term beginning in 2027 will determine who holds this seat, with implications for control of the House of Representatives. The district was created after the 2000 census and has been held by a Republican since its inception. However, demographic changes driven by population growth from the Austin metropolitan area have made it more competitive. In 2020, Donald Trump won the district by 7 points, down from 13 points in 2016. In 2024, Trump's margin narrowed further to about 5 points. Democratic candidates have invested heavily in the district, and in 2022, Democrat Lulu Flores came within 10 points of unseating Carter, a narrower margin than expected. Interest in the TX-31 race is high because it is one of the few genuinely competitive districts in Texas, which has become increasingly Republican over the past decade. National Democrats see it as a pickup opportunity, while Republicans are working to hold the seat. The outcome could affect the balance of power in the House, where the majority is often decided by a handful of seats. The race is also a bellwether for suburban voter trends in Texas, especially among college-educated voters and military families. Recent developments include the retirement of incumbent John Carter, who announced in 2025 that he would not seek reelection. This open seat race has attracted a crowded field of candidates from both parties. The Republican primary is expected to be competitive, with several candidates vying for the nomination. The Democratic primary is also contested, though with fewer candidates. The general election is expected to be one of the most expensive and closely watched House races in the country.

Historical Context

Texas's 31st congressional district was created after the 2000 census, when Texas gained two new House seats due to population growth. The district was drawn to be safely Republican, encompassing a mix of rural areas, small cities, and the growing suburbs north of Austin. John Carter won the first election in 2002 and was reelected easily for over a decade. The district's boundaries were redrawn after the 2010 census and again after the 2020 census, with each map making it slightly more competitive. The 2018 election marked a turning point. Democrat Julie Oliver lost by 15 points, but that was closer than previous Democratic candidates. In 2020, M.J. Hegar lost by 7 points, and in 2022, Lulu Flores lost by 10 points. These narrowing margins reflected the changing demographics of the district, driven by an influx of younger, more diverse residents moving to the Austin suburbs. The district's share of college-educated voters increased, and those voters trended Democratic. Historically, TX-31 has been a Republican stronghold, but it has become a battleground district in the 2020s. The retirement of John Carter in 2025 created the first open seat race in the district's history. Open seats tend to attract more competitive primaries and higher spending. The 2026 race will be a test of whether the district's trend toward competitiveness continues or whether Republicans can hold it with a new candidate.

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