This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Newark Mayoral Election

Name: Newark Mayoral Election
End: 2026-05-12T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$21.66K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Newark Mayoral Election

Vol

$21.66K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $21.66K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $21.66K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Ras Baraka win the Newark mayoral election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Ras Baraka win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	97%
Will Asha Coates-Hamlet win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	2%
Will Tanisha Garner win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	1%
Will Sheila Montague win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	1%
Will Noble Milton win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	0%
Will Nasheedah Singleton win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	0%
Will Douglas Davis win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	0%
Will Debra Salters win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	0%
Will Jhamar Youngblood win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	0%
Will Louis Shockley win the Newark mayoral election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$21.66K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2025 Newark mayoral election will be held on May 12, 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for June 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Newark Mayoral Election
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The 2025 Newark mayoral election will be held on May 12, 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for June 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2025 Newark mayoral election will be held on May 12, 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for June 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the e"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $86.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Asha Coates-Hamlet win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Sheila Montague win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jhamar Youngblood win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Tanisha Garner win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Louis Shockley win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Ras Baraka win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Noble Milton win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Nasheedah Singleton win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Douglas Davis win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Debra Salters win the Newark mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics