Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

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$36.58K

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How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

Vol

$36.58K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $36.58K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $36.58K

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13 markets tracked

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	91%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	84%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	74%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	62%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	49%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 19 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	32%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 20 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	13%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 21 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	7%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 24 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 23 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	4%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 22 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	3%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 25 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	2%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 26 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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91%

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$36.58K

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About This Event

of the 35 seats up in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, based on media calls If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least X in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so record

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** of the 35 seats up in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, based on media calls

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least X in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so record

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 26 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $36.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 26 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 25 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 24 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 23 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 22 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 21 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 20 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 19 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

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KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in th

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in th

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in th

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in th

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in th

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How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

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Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

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Events (1)

How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

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Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

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Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

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