Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

Total Volume

$161.21K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

Vol

$161.21K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $161.21K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $161.21K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?	Kalshi	98%
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?	Kalshi	97%
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 700,000?	Kalshi	84%
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 710,000?	Kalshi	25%
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?	Kalshi	6%
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 730,000?	Kalshi	4%
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 740,000?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$161.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 30, 2026 If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force, PIF, reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026, including residential, commercial, and Businessowner’s Program policies. This is a policy inventory, not policies written during the year or new business. The market remains open past September 30 becau

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 30, 2026

If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force, PIF, reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026, including residential, commercial, and Businessowner’s Program policies. This is a policy inventory, not policies written during the year or new business. The market remains open past September 30 becau

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above 740,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force (PIF) reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $161.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 740,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 23, 2026): Vol $52.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 23, 2026): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 23, 2026): Vol $11.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 730,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 23, 2026): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 23, 2026): Vol $65.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 710,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 23, 2026): Vol $16.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 700,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 23, 2026): Vol $93
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

Volume$161.21K

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHITech

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?

If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above 680,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force (PIF) reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026

KALSHI

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHITech

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?

If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above 690,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force (PIF) reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026

KALSHI

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 700,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢

KALSHITech

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 700,000?

If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above 700,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force (PIF) reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026

KALSHI

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 710,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHITech

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 710,000?

If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above 710,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force (PIF) reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026

KALSHI

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHITech

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?

If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above 720,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force (PIF) reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026

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45¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/KkItp7" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026"></iframe>

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California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

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Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

Markets (7)

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 700,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 700,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 710,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 710,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?

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Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 680,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 700,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 700,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 710,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 710,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

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