Alabama's 1st congressional district (AL-01) covers the southwestern part of the state, including Mobile, Baldwin County, and parts of Washington and Clarke counties. This district has been a Republican stronghold for decades, with the party holding the seat continuously since 1964. The 2026 Republican primary for AL-01 is an open contest because the current representative, Republican Jerry Carl, announced he will not seek reelection. Carl was first elected in 2020 and has served two terms. His decision to retire opens up a competitive primary in a district that is heavily Republican, meaning the primary winner is almost certain to win the general election in November 2026. The district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+16, making it one of the most Republican districts in the country. The primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on March 31 if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote in the first round. Several candidates have already declared their intentions, including state legislators, local officials, and political newcomers. The race is drawing attention because it will determine who represents a region that includes major economic drivers like the Port of Mobile, aerospace manufacturing, and military installations. The outcome could also signal the direction of the Alabama Republican Party, which has seen internal divisions between establishment and more conservative factions in recent years. AL-01 has a history of producing competitive primaries, with the 2020 race featuring a runoff between Jerry Carl and former state representative Bill Hightower. That contest was marked by heavy spending from outside groups and close attention from national Republicans. The 2026 primary is expected to be similarly competitive, with multiple candidates vying for the nomination. The district's voters are predominantly white, conservative, and rural, with a significant suburban population in Baldwin County, one of the fastest-growing counties in Alabama. The economy of the district is heavily tied to the Port of Mobile, which is the 9th largest port in the United States by tonnage, and to the aerospace industry, with Airbus and other manufacturers having major facilities in the area. Military installations like the Mobile Regional Airport and the Coast Guard Aviation Training Center also play a role. The primary will be closely watched by political analysts and donors because it could provide early indicators of voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Historical Context

The AL-01 district has been represented by Republicans since 1964, when Jack Edwards won the seat in a special election. Edwards held it for 20 years, until 1985. The district then went to Sonny Callahan, who served from 1985 to 2003. Callahan was succeeded by Jo Bonner, who served from 2003 to 2013. Bonner resigned to take a job with the University of Alabama System, triggering a special election in 2013 that was won by Bradley Byrne, a former state senator and candidate for governor. Byrne held the seat until 2020, when he ran for the U.S. Senate but lost in the Republican primary to Tommy Tuberville. Jerry Carl then won the open seat in 2020. The district has a history of competitive Republican primaries, particularly when the seat is open. In 2020, the primary drew six candidates, with Carl and Hightower advancing to a runoff that Carl won by a narrow margin. The 2013 special election also had a competitive primary, with Byrne emerging from a field of several candidates. The district has not been seriously contested by Democrats in general elections since the 1990s. The last Democrat to win the district was in 1964, before the Republican realignment of the South. The district's demographics have shifted over time, with Baldwin County experiencing rapid growth. Baldwin County's population grew by over 27% between 2010 and 2020, making it one of the fastest-growing counties in Alabama. This growth has brought new voters to the district, many of whom are retirees and families moving from other parts of the country. The district's economy has also evolved, with the Port of Mobile becoming a major hub for container shipping and the aerospace industry expanding with Airbus's assembly line in Mobile, which opened in 2015. These economic changes have influenced the political priorities of the district, with infrastructure and job creation becoming key issues in recent elections. The 2026 primary is the first open seat race since 2020, and it will test whether the district's growing suburban population shifts the political dynamics or if the traditional conservative base remains dominant.