Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Bosniak member of the Presidency winner?

Total Volume

$3.12K

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Bosniak member of the Presidency winner?

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$3.12K

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.12K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.12K

100%

Kalshi leads

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4 markets tracked

Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Kalshi	78%
Will Fahrudin Radoncic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Kalshi	50%
Will Bakir Izetbegovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Kalshi	50%
Will Semir Efendic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

78%

Top Probability

$3.12K

Volume

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About This Event

October 4, 2026 If X wins the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bosniak member of the Presidency winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 4, 2026

If X wins the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Semir Efendic wins the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This mark"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Semir Efendic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 4, 2027): Vol $289
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Fahrudin Radoncic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 4, 2027): Vol $71
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 4, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Bakir Izetbegovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 4, 2027): Vol $897
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Bosniak member of the Presidency winner?

Volume$3.12K

Markets4

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KALSHI

Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

If Denis Becirovic wins the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This ma

KALSHI

Will Fahrudin Radoncic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Fahrudin Radoncic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

If Fahrudin Radoncic wins the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This

KALSHI

Will Bakir Izetbegovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Bakir Izetbegovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

If Bakir Izetbegovic wins the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This

KALSHI

Will Semir Efendic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Semir Efendic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

If Semir Efendic wins the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This mark

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47¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/KkxGJA" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Bosniak member of the Presidency winner?"></iframe>

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Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Bosniak member of the Presidency winner?

Markets (4)

Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Fahrudin Radoncic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Fahrudin Radoncic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Bakir Izetbegovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Bakir Izetbegovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Semir Efendic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Semir Efendic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

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Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bosniak member of the Presidency winner?

Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Denis Becirovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Fahrudin Radoncic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Fahrudin Radoncic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Bakir Izetbegovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Bakir Izetbegovic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Semir Efendic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Will Semir Efendic win the 2026 election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

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