Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
End: 2026-10-11T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$857.18K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)

Vol

$857.18K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $857.18K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $857.18K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the fight be won by decision?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the fight be won by decision?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$857.18K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 11, 2026 (0 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026.

It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Melissa Gatto and Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026, is won by decision, including unanimous, split, majority, and technical decisions. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight ends "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $669
* **Total Liquidity:** $159
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.22)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the fight be won by decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $669
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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