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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Will gas hit __ by end of May?

Name: Will gas hit __ by end of May?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.18K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will gas hit __ by end of May?

Vol

$18.18K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.18K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.18K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?	Poly	94%
Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31?	Poly	90%
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?	Poly	78%
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Poly	62%
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	Poly	55%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?	Poly	54%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31?	Poly	53%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?	Poly	46%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.00 by May 31?	Poly	43%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?	Poly	22%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31?	Poly	9%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$18.18K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: http

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will gas hit __ by end of May?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: http

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the pric"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $241.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $742
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $989
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will gas hit (Low) $4.00 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $303
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $777
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $769
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $437
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $340
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $786
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance