What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets are forecasting that Chicago will not see a warm February day next year. Traders collectively believe there is a 100% chance the temperature at O'Hare Airport on February 20, 2026, will be 37°F or colder. In simpler terms, they are completely certain the high will not reach 38 degrees.

This represents an extreme level of confidence. The market has effectively ruled out any possibility of a mild winter day, betting instead on a cold outcome typical for the season.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors explain this near-certain prediction. First, the date itself is deep in Chicago's winter. February is historically the city's second-coldest month. The average high temperature in late February is only in the mid-30s, making a reading above 37 degrees less common.

Second, the market is likely pricing in a specific weather phenomenon. The leading contract specifies "37°F or below." This suggests traders are reacting to a reliable, longer-range weather model that has consistently projected a strong cold air mass or winter storm system for the Midwest around that exact date. When professional forecast models show high agreement on a cold outbreak two weeks in advance, prediction markets often move to reflect that high-confidence forecast.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The key date is the event itself: February 20, 2026. The official high temperature recorded at O'Hare Airport will settle all bets.

In the days leading up to it, the primary signal to watch is the consistency of operational weather model runs from agencies like the National Weather Service. If upcoming model forecasts begin to show a shift, predicting a warmer air mass moving into the region, we could see the final market probability shift off 100% before the date arrives. However, with the event still a year away, the current 100% odds are based on very long-range modeling, which can change.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets are generally reliable for short-term weather forecasts because they aggregate data from weather models and expert interpretation. For an event like this, the market is essentially acting as a probability engine for weather modeling.

The major limitation here is time. The forecast is for a date roughly a year in the future, which is at the very edge of long-range climate outlooks and far beyond the window of accurate daily weather prediction. The current 100% odds likely reflect a strong signal in seasonal models, but those have limited accuracy for a single specific day. The probability could become more volatile and realistic as the date approaches and higher-resolution, short-term forecasts become available.