Name: How many Tornadoes in the US in January?
End: 2026-02-10T00:00:00.000Z

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How many Tornadoes in the US in January? | PredictPedia

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5 markets tracked

Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?	Poly	76%
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?	Poly	21%
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?	Poly	2%
Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?	Poly	1%
Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?	Poly	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Tornadoes in the US in January?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 10, 2026 (26 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on February 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornado"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $463.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.9K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 31.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 10, 2026): Vol $150.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 10, 2026): Vol $272.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 10, 2026): Vol $20.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 10, 2026): Vol $14.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 10, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

25d 17h remaining

Feb 10, 2026 12:00 AM

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20¢

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How many Tornadoes in the US in January?

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Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

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Events (1)

How many Tornadoes in the US in January?

Markets (5)

Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

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Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Tornadoes in the US in January?

Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

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