Peru presidential election: first round second place? | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Kalshi	73%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Kalshi	25%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Jorge Nieto finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will George Forsyth finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Kalshi	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peru presidential election: first round second place?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Mar 25, 2026

If X finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order, runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place, For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to sec

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Ricardo Belmont finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or pe"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ricardo Belmont finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Carlos Álvarez finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Wolfgang Grozo finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rafael López Aliaga finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Keiko Fujimori finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jorge Nieto finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will George Forsyth finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Alfonso López Chau finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

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Peru presidential election: first round second place?

Peru presidential election: first round second place?

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Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Peru presidential election: first round second place?

Markets (9)

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Ricardo Belmont finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Ricardo Belmont finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Alfonso López Chau finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Alfonso López Chau finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Keiko Fujimori finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Keiko Fujimori finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Peru presidential election: first round second place?

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Ricardo Belmont finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Ricardo Belmont finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Alfonso López Chau finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Alfonso López Chau finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Keiko Fujimori finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Keiko Fujimori finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

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Share

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