This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on March 28, 2026. The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded in degrees Celsius at that specific weather station, using data from Wunderground's finalized historical records. This type of market belongs to a growing category of climate prediction markets, where participants bet on specific meteorological outcomes rather than general trends. These markets transform weather forecasting into a measurable financial instrument, allowing participants to express confidence in particular temperature ranges. The interest stems from both meteorological accuracy and financial speculation, as participants analyze historical data, climate models, and seasonal forecasts to make informed predictions. Beijing's climate, characterized by cold, dry winters and hot, humid summers, makes late March a transitional period where temperature variability is significant. The specific focus on the airport station, which follows World Meteorological Organization standards, provides a consistent and verifiable data source, eliminating discrepancies from urban heat island effects at other city locations. Participants include meteorologists, climate scientists, financial traders, and weather enthusiasts who combine technical analysis with atmospheric science.

Historical Context

Beijing's official meteorological record keeping began in 1841, though consistent modern instrumentation started in the 20th century. The Beijing Capital International Airport weather station has been operational since the airport's opening in 1958, providing a continuous urban record. For the specific date of March 28, historical extremes provide important context. The highest temperature ever recorded in Beijing for any March 28 was 26.6°C in 2014, based on data from the Beijing Observatory. The lowest maximum temperature for that date was 2.8°C in 1970. The 30-year climate normal (1991-2020) for late March shows a clear warming trend. Analysis by the NCC indicates that average March temperatures in Beijing have increased by approximately 1.5°C since the 1960s. This warming is not linear, however, and individual years can still see significant cold snaps. The spring of 2018, for instance, saw a notable late cold wave that brought snowfall to Beijing in early April, demonstrating high interannual variability. Past prediction markets on similar metrics have shown that participants often underestimate the potential for extreme outliers, both high and low, during this transitional season.

Frequently Asked Questions