Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets assign a very low probability to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol being released from custody before the end of 2026. On Polymarket, shares for "Yes" are trading at just 4¢, implying the market sees only a 4% chance of this event occurring. This price suggests the scenario is viewed as highly unlikely, bordering on a remote political possibility. The market has thin liquidity, with only about $3,000 in total volume, indicating limited trader conviction but a clear consensus on the low odds.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The primary factor is Yoon's current status as a sitting president with robust constitutional protections. In South Korea, a sitting president enjoys immunity from criminal indictment while in office, barring an extraordinary event like impeachment and conviction. Yoon's term lasts until May 2027, extending beyond this market's December 2026 resolution date. The market is essentially pricing the probability of a severe, unprecedented political crisis, such as a successful impeachment leading to a criminal conviction and custodial sentence, all within a compressed timeline.

Furthermore, historical precedent strongly supports the "No" outcome. No sitting South Korean president has ever been removed from office and imprisoned before their term ended. While past presidents have been investigated and imprisoned after leaving office, the process has always taken considerable time. The market reflects the significant institutional and procedural hurdles that would make a pre-2027 custody event for a sitting president extremely improbable.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds could shift dramatically only in response to a major, unforeseen political earthquake. A specific, imminent catalyst would be the opposition-controlled National Assembly passing a motion for Yoon's impeachment, followed by the Constitutional Court upholding it. This would require a severe breach of constitutional order or a major corruption scandal with immediate, irrefutable evidence. The timeline remains a critical constraint. Even if impeachment began soon, the subsequent legal process for a criminal trial and sentencing would likely push any potential custody date beyond 2026. Therefore, for the "Yes" outcome to become likely, an accelerated and historically unprecedented judicial-political collapse would need to occur within the next year.