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This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the Democratic Party primary for Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, scheduled for May 19, 2026. The market will resolve based on which candidate secures the Democratic nomination to run for the U.S. House of Representatives seat in the November 2026 general election. The district, which includes the Lehigh Valley cities of Allentown and Bethlehem along with parts of Northampton County, is a nationally watched swing district. Its outcome could help determine which party controls the House of Representatives. The race is expected to attract significant national attention and funding, as both parties view PA-07 as a critical battleground. The current representative, Republican Susan Wild, won re-election in 2024 by a narrow margin, demonstrating the district's competitive nature. This primary will select the Democrat who will attempt to flip or defend the seat, making the internal party contest a key early indicator of Democratic strategy and candidate strength for the 2026 cycle. Political observers are monitoring potential candidates, including state legislators, local officials, and possibly previous challengers, who may enter the race.
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District has a history of competitive elections and shifting partisan control. The district boundaries were significantly redrawn in 2018 following a Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling that found the previous map was an unconstitutional gerrymander. The new map created a more compact district centered on the Lehigh Valley. Democrat Susan Wild won the newly configured seat in the 2018 election, defeating Republican Marty Nothstein. Wild's victory was part of a Democratic wave that flipped the House. She was re-elected in 2020 by a margin of about 4 points. The district became more Republican-leaning after the 2020 census redistricting, which added more rural townships in Carbon County. This contributed to a closer race in 2022, where Wild defeated Democrat-turned-Republican challenger Lisa Scheller by roughly 9,000 votes. In 2024, Wild won again by a slim margin against Republican Kevin Dellicker. The Democratic primary has historically been decisive, as the district's Democratic voters tend to coalesce around a single strong nominee rather than engage in protracted internal battles. The 2022 Democratic primary was uncontested, with Rick Daugherty as the sole candidate.
The outcome of the PA-07 Democratic primary matters because it will determine the candidate who challenges a vulnerable Republican incumbent in one of the most competitive House districts in the country. Control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which has seen narrow majorities in recent cycles, could hinge on a handful of seats like this one. The primary winner will immediately become a focal point for national fundraising and media attention, testing Democratic messaging and voter mobilization strategies in a key presidential battleground state. For residents of the Lehigh Valley, the primary selects their standard-bearer on issues like manufacturing, healthcare, and infrastructure that directly affect the regional economy. A divisive primary could drain resources and create intra-party fractures, while a unified early choice could allow Democrats to build a general election campaign apparatus months earlier than their Republican opponent.
As of early 2025, no Democratic candidates have formally declared their intention to run in the 2026 primary. The political landscape is in a post-2024 election assessment phase. Potential candidates are likely conducting private polling, consulting with party leaders, and building fundraising networks. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has listed PA-07 as a target district for the 2026 cycle. Local Democratic committees in Lehigh and Northampton Counties are beginning to discuss potential recruits. The primary is over a year away, but the informal candidate recruitment process is underway.
The Pennsylvania primary election for all federal and state offices is scheduled for Tuesday, May 19, 2026. This is the date when Democratic voters in PA-07 will select their congressional nominee.
The current U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District is Republican Susan Wild. She was first elected in 2018 and has served since January 2019.
The district includes all of Lehigh and Northampton Counties. Major cities include Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton. It also includes smaller boroughs and townships like Whitehall, Hanover, and Forks.
The candidate who receives the most votes in the May 19, 2026, Democratic primary election wins the nomination. Pennsylvania does not have a runoff system, so a simple plurality is sufficient.
This is extremely unlikely in a competitive district. If it occurred, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party would likely be able to nominate a candidate by other means before the general election. The prediction market resolves to 'Other' only if no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026.
Official results will be certified and published by the Pennsylvania Department of State. The resolution source for this prediction market is the Democratic National Committee's website (democrats.org), which will report the official nominee.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 70% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 2% |
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