This prediction market focuses on whether the next government funding bill enacted before January 1, 2027, will be a 'clean continuing resolution' (clean CR). A clean CR is a temporary funding measure that extends government spending at the previous fiscal year's levels for a specified period without incorporating any additional policy provisions, earmarks, or modifications to agency operations. These measures are used to prevent government shutdowns when Congress fails to pass full-year appropriations bills by the start of the fiscal year on October 1. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if the bill that becomes law meets this strict definition, regardless of how a source agency might describe it. The question is significant because it tests the ability of a divided Congress to pass basic funding without political brinkmanship. Recent years have seen frequent use of CRs, with the 118th Congress relying heavily on them to fund the government. Interest in this market stems from its implications for governance stability, political polarization, and the functioning of federal agencies that rely on predictable funding. Observers track this to gauge whether legislative dysfunction has reached a point where even temporary, clean extensions are politically untenable.

Historical Context

Continuing resolutions have been used since the 1970s as temporary funding measures when Congress misses appropriation deadlines. The modern era of frequent CRs began in the 1990s, with an average of 4.6 CRs per year from fiscal years 1998 to 2022. A significant precedent was the 2013 government shutdown, which occurred after Republicans demanded changes to the Affordable Care Act in a CR, leading to a 16-day closure. This demonstrated the political risks of attaching policy riders to must-pass funding bills. The longest CR in history lasted 176 days in fiscal year 2007, funding the government from October 1, 2006, to mid-February 2007. In recent years, the use of CRs has intensified. The 117th Congress (2021-2022) passed three CRs, while the 118th Congress has already relied on multiple CRs to fund the government through 2024. The trend reflects deepening partisan divisions and difficulties in passing full-year appropriations. Historically, clean CRs were more common, but recent decades have seen increased attempts to attach policy provisions, making truly clean measures a test of congressional functionality.

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