Grand Theft Auto VI: Metacritic score
PM $102.7K · K 83.3K contracts
2
24
PM $102.7K · K 83.3K contracts
2
24
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 92+ at 98.5%, and on Kalshi it is Above 40 at 99.5%.
Polymarket
- 92+98.5%
- 90+98.1%
- 94+95.8%
- 96+81.5%
- 97+57.5%
Kalshi
- Above 4099.5%
- Above 3099.5%
- Above 2099.5%
- Above 1099.5%
- Above 6599%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $102.7K · K 83.3K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
24
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
This analysis was written from an earlier market snapshot, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These markets ask whether the Metacritic Metascore for Grand Theft Auto VI will reach a stated level. The two providers word the rule differently. Kalshi resolves to Yes if the Metascore is "Above X seven days after release at 10:00AM ET" [1]. Polymarket resolves to "Yes" if the Metascore is "at least the specified value" as of seven days after release at 10:00 AM ET [2]. Polymarket adds that a multi-platform game uses Metacritic's default Metascore, and that "release" means the game becomes publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, and leaks do not count [2]. Polymarket resolves to "No" if the game is not released by December 31, 2026 [2]. The Kalshi excerpt lists no end time [1].
Reading the snapshot
The Kalshi data was observed at Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC [1]. The Polymarket data has the same observation time [2]. These are snapshots of listed prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Kalshi's sample covers 12 of 17 markets for its event, so the sample is partial [1]. Its included Yes prices run from 0.955 to 0.995 [1]. Polymarket's sample includes all 7 of its markets [2]. Its Yes prices fall as the threshold rises, from 0.9835 at 92 to 0.105 at 99 [2].
The two events use different thresholds and different rules, so their prices should not be merged or averaged. Kalshi's listed market end date is Nov 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, while Polymarket's is Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC [1][2]. Those dates reflect when each market closes, not when the game is expected to release or be scored.
Volume figures are reported in different units. Kalshi reports 77,605 contracts and Polymarket reports $100,729 [1][2]. Neither figure can be compared with the other. Volume is not liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include a release date, so it does not show whether the seven-day scoring check will occur before either market closes. The Kalshi sample omits 5 contracts, and this snapshot does not show their prices. Nothing here explains why prices sit where they do. Prices may change after the observation time, and a price difference between contracts is not an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: Grand Theft Auto VI: Metacritic score. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: "GTA VI" Metacritic Score?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
Snapshot observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Both contracts ask whether a Metacritic Metascore for Grand Theft Auto VI will clear a numeric threshold, but the wording differs. The Kalshi event resolves to Yes if the Metascore is "Above X seven days after release at 10:00AM ET" [1]. The Polymarket event resolves to Yes if the Metascore is "at least the specified value" as of seven days after release at 10:00 AM ET [2]. Kalshi's "Above" and Polymarket's "at least" are different thresholds, so prices at the same number are not directly equivalent.
Polymarket also specifies that for multi-platform games, Metacritic's default Metascore is used, which is the platform "with the most critical reviews" [2]. It states that a release must be "publicly available for purchase or download in the US," and that the market resolves to No if GTA VI is "not released by December 31, 2026" [2]. The Kalshi excerpt does not list an end time, though the market record shows an end date of Nov 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, and the source was retrieved at Nov 13, 2026, 11:52 AM UTC [1][2]. These prices describe that observation only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The Kalshi sample is partial: 12 of 17 markets are included, ordered by Yes price [1]. Among the included thresholds, Yes prices range from 0.94 at "Above 90" to 0.995 at several lower thresholds [1]. The five omitted Kalshi markets have no information in this sample, so no conclusion about their prices is supported.
The Polymarket sample includes all six listed markets [2]. Yes prices fall from 0.9905 at "at least 90" to 0.275 at "at least 98" [2]. The sharpest decline appears between 96 at 0.78 and 98 at 0.275 [2].
Do not average or rank these prices across platforms. Price differences between a Kalshi "Above" contract and a Polymarket "at least" contract reflect different wording, close times, and resolution rules, not a confirmed arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each view, or how these markets have performed historically. Volume figures are not discussed here because volume does not measure liquidity or trader count.
Neither contract has resolved. Resolution depends on a Metascore taken seven days after release, and the release date itself is not established in this evidence. Readers should check each provider's current rules and listed times before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Grand Theft Auto VI: Metacritic score. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: "GTA VI" Metacritic Score?. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks whether the Metascore for Grand Theft Auto VI on Metacritic will reach a stated threshold. Kalshi's version resolves to Yes if the Metascore is above a set value seven days after release at 10:00 AM ET [1]. Polymarket's version resolves to Yes if the Metascore listed on Metacritic as of seven days after release, at 10:00 AM ET, is at least the specified value, and to No otherwise [2]. The two providers use different wording for the threshold, with Kalshi using "above" and Polymarket using "at least," so the same numeric level can settle differently at the boundary. The contracts also depend on which Metacritic score is used. Kalshi says that if no platform is specified, the value used is the Metascore displayed by default on the game's main Metacritic page at the expiration date and time [1]. Polymarket defines the default as the Metascore for the platform with the most critical reviews, measured at the same seven-day point [2]. Kalshi notes that it is not endorsed by Metacritic and that references to Metacritic are descriptive only [1]. The contracts also define release. Polymarket treats release as the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the United States. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks do not count, while a release limited to certain consoles does count [2]. Polymarket states that if the game is not released by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to No, and it lists an end time of December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC [2]. A listed end date in contract rules is a term of the contract and does not announce when the game will be released. The Kalshi rules available here list no end time [1]. In the market snapshot, Kalshi's event shows Yes prices for its "above" thresholds, with a partial sample of 12 of 17 markets included. Polymarket's six included markets show Yes prices that fall as the threshold rises, from 0.9845 at 90 to 0.255 at 98 [2]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be compared across the two providers as if they were one ranking.
Historical Context
Grand Theft Auto V is a 2013 action-adventure game developed by Rockstar North and published by Rockstar Games. It is the seventh main entry in the series, following 2008's Grand Theft Auto IV, and the fifteenth entry overall [4]. Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy is a 2021 compilation of Grand Theft Auto III (2001), Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (2002), and Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (2004), remastered with visual enhancements and gameplay upgrades [3]. These sources describe earlier games in the series and do not provide information about Grand Theft Auto VI's development, release, or review scores.
Why It Matters
The contracts measure a single critical-reception figure. Metacritic's Metascore is the value both providers use to settle the market, read at seven days after release [1][2]. Because the score is taken at a fixed time and on a defined platform, the contract reflects the displayed figure at that moment rather than a general judgment of the game. Traders following these markets need to read the platform rule and the threshold wording, since Kalshi uses "above" and Polymarket uses "at least" [1][2]. The release definition also matters, because early access or leaked versions do not start the seven-day clock under Polymarket's rules [2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When does the Metascore get checked?
Both providers check the Metascore seven days after release at 10:00 AM ET [1][2]. The contract wording does not state when the game will be released.
What counts as a release?
Polymarket counts the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the United States as a release. Early access, beta versions, other pre-release availability, and leaks do not count, although a release limited to certain consoles does count [2].
What happens if the game is not released by the deadline?
Polymarket states that if Grand Theft Auto VI is not released by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to No [2].
Which Metascore is used if the game is on several platforms?
Kalshi uses the Metascore displayed by default on the main Metacritic page if no platform is specified [1]. Polymarket uses the platform with the most critical reviews [2].
Do the prices show the likelihood of an outcome?
The prices are snapshots of Yes and No prices at one moment. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the Kalshi and Polymarket samples are not combined into one ranking [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
