$14.69K
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$14.69K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026 between D.C. United SC and Philadelphia Union.
Prediction markets give D.C. United's match against the Philadelphia Union a 71% chance of having over 1.5 total goals scored. In simpler terms, traders collectively believe there is roughly a 3 in 4 chance that the combined score will be at least 2-0, 1-1, or any other result with two or more goals. This shows a strong, but not certain, expectation for an offensive game.
Two main factors are likely driving this prediction. First, recent history between these teams supports a higher-scoring outcome. In their last five meetings, four matches had three or more total goals. Second, the opening match of a new MLS season can be unpredictable defensively as teams shake off rust and integrate new players, which often leads to more scoring opportunities and mistakes. The market is essentially betting that these patterns will hold for this season opener.
The key event is the match itself, which kicks off at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, February 21. The only factor that could shift predictions now is official news before the game, like a last-minute key player being ruled out due to injury. Once the game starts, the score will provide the final answer.
For major sports like MLS, prediction markets on totals (like Over/Under goals) are generally reliable but not perfect. They efficiently combine public sentiment with statistical trends. The main limitation here is the small market size. With only about $47,000 wagered, the odds might be more easily swayed by a few large bets compared to a market with millions in volume. While the historical data is compelling, opening day always carries an extra element of surprise.
Prediction markets assign a 71% probability that the MLS match between D.C. United and the Philadelphia Union will feature over 1.5 total goals. This price, translating to implied odds of -245, shows a clear expectation for at least two goals. With $47,000 in total volume spread thinly across nine related markets, liquidity is limited. This suggests the consensus is driven by a smaller pool of engaged traders rather than heavy institutional betting.
The high probability for over 1.5 goals is rooted in team tactics and recent history. The Philadelphia Union, under Jim Curtin, consistently employs a high-pressing, attack-oriented system. They scored 57 goals in the 2023 regular season, ranking among the league's top offenses. D.C. United, while less prolific, conceded 49 goals last year, a defensive record in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference. Direct matchups also support this trend. In their three meetings last season, the combined scores were 3-1, 2-2, and 2-1, each easily clearing the 1.5 goal line. The market is pricing in a continuation of these open, transitional games.
As this is a season-opening match, unexpected variables could defy the consensus. The primary risk is early-season rust disrupting offensive chemistry, leading to a cagey, low-scoring affair. Significant weather conditions, like heavy rain or wind at Audi Field, could also suppress scoring chances and alter game plans. An early red card would dramatically shift the match dynamic, potentially locking in an under result if a team is forced to defend deeply with ten men. With resolution imminent, no new information will shift these odds; the market's judgment is final.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the Major League Soccer match scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026, between D.C. United SC and Philadelphia Union. The event allows participants to wager on various outcomes of the game, such as the final score, which team will win, or specific player performances. This fixture is part of the 2026 MLS regular season, which will be the league's 31st season and could feature an expanded schedule following the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted across North America. The match represents a classic Eastern Conference rivalry, with both clubs having established distinct identities and competitive histories within the league. Interest in this specific game is heightened because it occurs early in the 2026 season, a period when teams are establishing form and integrating new players. The 2026 season is also significant as it follows the World Cup, which may influence player availability, fitness, and team dynamics. Prediction markets for MLS games have grown in popularity as legal sports betting expands across the United States, offering fans a way to engage more deeply with match outcomes beyond simple fandom. The D.C. United versus Philadelphia Union matchup typically draws attention due to geographic proximity, creating a natural rivalry, and the contrasting styles of play each team has historically employed.
The rivalry between D.C. United and Philadelphia Union dates to the Union's inaugural MLS season in 2010. D.C. United, founded in 1995, is one of the league's original clubs and has won four MLS Cups, though its last championship was in 2004. Philadelphia Union, established as an expansion team, built its identity around a strong academy system and a cohesive tactical approach under Jim Curtin, reaching the MLS Cup final in 2022. The head-to-head record historically favors D.C. United in the early years, but Philadelphia has dominated recent encounters. From 2020 through the 2024 season, Philadelphia lost only once to D.C. United in regular season play. A notable match occurred on April 15, 2023, when Philadelphia defeated D.C. United 7-0, tying the record for the largest margin of victory in a road game in MLS history. The teams have also met in the U.S. Open Cup, with Philadelphia eliminating D.C. United in the 2018 and 2022 tournaments. This history of lopsided results in recent years adds a layer of narrative to the 2026 fixture, as D.C. United seeks to demonstrate progress under new management against a conference rival that has frequently been its superior.
Beyond the immediate sporting result, this match has significance for the economic ecosystem surrounding MLS and sports betting. Legal sportsbooks in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington D.C. will see substantial handle on this game, contributing to state tax revenues. For the clubs, early-season matches against conference rivals can have outsized importance for playoff positioning; since 2019, the average margin for securing the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference has been just 4.5 points. The social impact involves fan engagement for two clubs with dedicated supporter bases. The Sons of Ben (Philadelphia) and the Screaming Eagles (D.C. United) create a vibrant atmosphere, and match outcomes influence local sports media narratives for weeks. For the league, matches between established rivals in major media markets drive television ratings and digital subscriptions to MLS Season Pass on Apple TV, which is a cornerstone of the league's media strategy following its $2.5 billion agreement with Apple.
As of the information available for this 2026 fixture, both teams are in their preseason preparations. The MLS SuperDraft for the 2026 season occurred in December 2025, and the primary transfer window opened on January 31, 2026. Roster construction for this match will be influenced by these moves. D.C. United, under Troy Lesesne, is implementing a new tactical system, while Philadelphia Union aims to maintain its core philosophy. Player fitness following the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which concludes in July 2025, will be a major storyline, as several players from both clubs may have participated in the tournament. The official MLS schedule for 2026, including kickoff times and broadcast details for this match, was released in late 2025.
The match is scheduled to be played at Audi Field in Washington, D.C., the home stadium of D.C. United. The stadium's address is 100 Potomac Avenue SW, Washington, D.C., and it has a seating capacity of approximately 20,000 for soccer matches.
The match will be broadcast exclusively on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV, as per the league's media rights agreement. Some matches may also be available on linear television via Fox Sports under the agreement's select game provisions.
As of the end of the 2024 MLS season, the all-time regular season record favors D.C. United. In 44 meetings, D.C. United has 19 wins, Philadelphia Union has 15 wins, and 10 matches have ended in a draw.
As of 2024, the top scorer in matches between D.C. United and Philadelphia Union is Chris Pontius, who scored 7 goals. Pontius played for both clubs during his MLS career, finding success against each team.
Yes, legal sports betting is available for MLS matches in numerous states, including Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington D.C. Bettors must be within state borders and use licensed mobile apps or retail sportsbooks to place wagers.
The most recent meeting prior to the 2026 season was in 2024. The specific result and scoreline from that season would be the reference point for recent form heading into this fixture.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 41% |
| Poly | 31% |
| Poly | 28% |
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