This prediction market addresses whether Viktor Orbán, Hungary's long-serving Prime Minister, will be removed from power before the end of 2026. Orbán has dominated Hungarian politics since 2010, leading his Fidesz party to four consecutive electoral victories and implementing sweeping constitutional and institutional changes that have consolidated his power. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Orbán resigns, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses or is prevented from fulfilling his prime ministerial duties during this period. The question is significant because Orbán's tenure represents one of the most stable and controversial political regimes in the European Union, often clashing with EU institutions over rule of law, media freedom, and democratic norms. Recent years have seen increased domestic pressure from a newly unified opposition and economic challenges, including high inflation and a strained budget, testing his government's resilience. Interest in this topic stems from its implications for European politics, the future of EU-Hungary relations, and the durability of what Orbán terms 'illiberal democracy' in Central Europe.

Historical Context

Viktor Orbán's political career has been defined by remarkable longevity and confrontation. He first rose to prominence as a liberal anti-communist activist in the late 1980s, co-founding Fidesz. After a first term as Prime Minister from 1998 to 2002, he spent eight years in opposition before leading Fidesz to a two-thirds supermajority in the 2010 parliamentary elections. This victory allowed him to enact a new constitution in 2011, the Fundamental Law, which critics argue centralized power and weakened independent institutions like the judiciary and media. Orbán secured re-election in 2014, 2018, and 2022, each time with a constitutional majority, enabling further legislative changes that entrenched Fidesz's control. A key precedent for removal is internal: in 2021, Orbán faced a rare primary challenge for the Fidesz leadership from then-Mayor of Hódmezővásárhely, Péter Márki-Zay, though Orbán easily prevailed. The last time a sitting Hungarian Prime Minister was removed from office mid-term was in 2009, when Ferenc Gyurcsány resigned following the leak of a controversial speech and the global financial crisis, leading to a technocratic government. This historical precedent, while from a different political era, informs discussions about the mechanisms and triggers for a prime minister's departure.

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