This prediction market focuses on whether and where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in person before the end of 2026. The market resolves to a specific location if a meeting occurs, or to 'No meeting before 2027' if one does not. The definition of a meeting requires both leaders to be physically present and interact. This topic directly tests the prospects for high-level diplomacy in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Since that invasion, Zelenskyy and Putin have not held any direct talks. Their last known in-person meeting was in Paris in December 2019, during negotiations about the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Interest in this market stems from its function as a proxy for gauging the potential for a negotiated settlement or ceasefire. A meeting would signal a dramatic shift in the conflict's trajectory, while continued absence of contact would indicate entrenched hostilities. Analysts and diplomats closely watch for any signals of backchannel communications or third-party mediation efforts that could pave the way for such a summit.

Historical Context

The last face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred in Paris on December 9, 2019, at a Normandy Format summit alongside the leaders of France and Germany. That meeting resulted in agreements to exchange prisoners and implement a ceasefire in the Donbas region, though the ceasefire was repeatedly violated. Prior to the 2022 invasion, negotiations primarily occurred through the Minsk Agreements, signed in 2014 and 2015, which were brokered by France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine in the so-called Normandy Format. These agreements aimed to end the fighting in Donbas but were never fully implemented, with each side accusing the other of bad faith. The full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, severed direct diplomatic contact at the presidential level. Several rounds of lower-level talks were held in Belarus and Turkey in the war's first weeks, but they collapsed by May 2022. Since then, communication has been limited to prisoner exchanges and grain deal negotiations, handled by intelligence agencies and ministers, not the presidents themselves.

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