This prediction market topic concerns the potential location of a future in-person meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin before the end of 2026. The market will resolve to a specific country or territory if such a meeting occurs, or to 'No meeting before 2027' if it does not. The question is set against the backdrop of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, which began with Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale invasion in February 2022. Since the invasion, direct diplomatic contact between the two leaders has been extremely limited, with negotiations primarily conducted through intermediaries or lower-level officials. The topic garners significant interest as a barometer for potential diplomatic thaw, ceasefire negotiations, or peace talks, with the location of any meeting serving as a powerful symbolic indicator of the negotiating parties' relative positions and concessions. Analysts closely monitor statements from both capitals and international mediators for signals about possible dialogue.

Historical Context

The last confirmed in-person meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin occurred on December 9, 2019, in Paris during the Normandy Format summit, which also included the leaders of France and Germany. This meeting aimed to revive implementation of the Minsk Agreements, which were designed to end the conflict in Donbas that began in 2014. Prior to the 2022 invasion, Zelenskyy's administration had engaged in direct talks with Moscow, including through the Trilateral Contact Group. The full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, severed high-level direct contact. Several rounds of negotiations were held in Belarus and Turkey in the early weeks of the war, involving delegations but not the presidents themselves. These talks yielded limited results, such as prisoner exchanges and the since-collapsed Black Sea grain deal, but failed to produce a ceasefire. The historical precedent suggests that if a meeting were to occur, it would likely be in a neutral third country that maintains relations with both parties, similar to the Istanbul venue used in 2022.

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