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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Name: Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
End: 2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.18M

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Markets

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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Vol

$1.18M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.18M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.18M

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	Poly	99%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Poly	94%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$1.18M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate con

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 15, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate con

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.18M
* **Total Liquidity:** $69.4K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 17.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 15, 2026): Vol $782.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 15, 2026): Vol $377.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $23.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Volume$1.18M

Markets3

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POLYMARKET

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 99.4¢No 0.6¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the no

POLYMARKET

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 94.2¢No 5.8¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

POLYMARKET

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.1¢No 100.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomi

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65¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/LFoT4Q" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?"></iframe>

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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

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Events (1)

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Markets (3)

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

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