Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Regatas vs. Boca Juniors
Total Volume
$2.07K
Events
1
Markets
1
Regatas vs. Boca Juniors
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $2.07K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $2.07K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Regatas vs. Boca Juniors
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 99% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
99%
Top Probability
$2.07K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
In the upcoming LNB game, scheduled for January 30 at 7:30PM ET: If the Regatas win, the market will resolve to "Regatas". If the Boca Juniors win, the market will resolve to "Boca Juniors". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets give Regatas an overwhelming 99% chance to win this basketball game. In practical terms, this means traders see a Regatas victory as nearly certain. A 99% probability is the market's way of saying it would be a major surprise if Boca Juniors won. This level of confidence is unusually high for a sports event, where upsets are common.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The extreme odds are likely due to a significant mismatch between the teams. Regatas (Club Regatas Corrientes) is a traditional power in Argentina's top basketball league, the Liga Nacional de Básquet (LNB). They are consistently a playoff contender. Boca Juniors, while globally famous for soccer, fields a basketball team that has historically struggled in the LNB and often finishes near the bottom of the standings.
Recent season performance almost certainly fuels this prediction. If Regatas is near the top of the league and Boca Juniors is at the bottom, the expected outcome is clear. The specific timing might also be a factor. If key Boca players are injured or the team is on a long losing streak, the perceived gap widens further.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main event is the game itself on January 30 at 7:30 PM ET. Any last-minute change before tip-off, like a surprise announcement that Regatas's star players are sitting out, could shift the odds. Otherwise, the market will resolve as soon as the final buzzer sounds. A postponement would delay the outcome, but wouldn't change the underlying prediction unless the team rosters changed significantly before the make-up game.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For one-sided professional sports games, prediction markets are generally accurate. They efficiently aggregate information about team strength, injuries, and historical performance. However, the "99%" price is partly a function of low trading volume. Only about $2,000 has been wagered, which is very small. In thin markets like this, odds can be skewed and may not fully account for the always-present chance of a pure sports upset—a bad shooting night for the favorite or an incredible performance by the underdog. While the market direction is probably correct, the near-100% probability likely overstates the true certainty.
Current Market Outlook
The prediction market on Polymarket prices a Regatas victory at 99 cents, implying a 99% probability. This is an extreme confidence level, suggesting traders view the outcome as nearly certain. With only $2,000 in total trading volume, liquidity is thin. This means the price could be more volatile and less reliable than a heavily traded market, but the near-unanimous consensus is clear.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The primary factor is the significant talent and performance gap between the two teams in Argentina's Liga Nacional de Básquet (LNB). Regatas Corrientes is a perennial contender with a strong roster, while Boca Juniors' basketball division has historically struggled for consistency and top-tier results. The specific timing and context of this regular season match likely reinforces this disparity, possibly due to recent team form, player availability, or head-to-head history. In Argentine basketball, such lopsided matchups are not uncommon, and the market is reflecting that established hierarchy.
What Could Change These Odds
At a 99% probability, the market sees almost no path to a Boca Juniors upset. A drastic shift would require a last-minute, unreported event, such as Regatas missing multiple key players due to illness or injury. The main practical risk is not a Boca win, but a game postponement, which would delay resolution. Given the resolution rules, a cancellation would force a 50-50 split, a scenario that would catastrophically punish those holding "Yes" shares on Regatas at the current price. This tail risk, however remote, is the only mathematical justification for the price not being a flat 100%.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.