This prediction market focuses on whether Keir Starmer, the Leader of the Opposition, will use a specific term during his next scheduled Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) session. PMQs is a weekly parliamentary event held every Wednesday when the House of Commons is sitting. During this 30-minute session, the Prime Minister fields questions from Members of Parliament, with the Leader of the Opposition granted six questions to challenge government policy and performance. The market resolves based purely on whether Starmer utters a predetermined word or phrase, regardless of its context within his questioning. This creates a measurable, binary outcome tied directly to parliamentary procedure. Interest in such markets stems from political analysts, journalists, and the public who scrutinize PMQs for shifts in political strategy, messaging priorities, and the opposition's chosen lines of attack against the government. The specific term in question becomes a focal point for gauging Starmer's immediate political focus, whether it is a new policy label, a character attack, or a recurring theme like 'NHS crisis' or 'cost of living.' Recent developments, such as new government scandals, economic data releases, or international events, heavily influence the topics Starmer selects, making each PMQs session a live indicator of opposition strategy.

Historical Context

Prime Minister's Questions has its origins in questions posed to the Prime Minister in the late 19th century, but the modern, televised format began in 1961. The session was initially held twice weekly for 15 minutes before moving to a single 30-minute slot on Wednesdays in 1997. The event is a central pillar of British parliamentary accountability, though its tone has varied dramatically. The era of Tony Blair versus William Hague in the late 1990s was noted for its sharp, forensic clashes. The period from 2010 to 2016, featuring David Cameron and Ed Miliband, often focused on austerity and economic policy. The most recent precedent before the Sunak-Starmer pairing was the frequent, highly adversarial contests between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, which were characterized by Starmer's prosecutorial style focusing on government scandals like 'Partygate.' Historically, Leaders of the Opposition have used PMQs to test and cement specific attack lines or labels against a government, such as 'Winter of Discontent' in the 1970s or 'dementia tax' in 2017. The success of these terms in penetrating public discourse often depends on their repetition in this high-profile forum.

Frequently Asked Questions