$77.18K
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$77.18K
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14
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In Q1 2026 If real GDP, as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate, increases by more than X then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q1 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
Prediction markets currently give about a 9 in 10 chance that U.S. economic growth, measured by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), will exceed 1.0% in the first quarter of 2026. This is a very high level of confidence. In simple terms, traders collectively believe it is almost certain the economy will avoid a near-stall and post modest growth two years from now. The forecast is based on the government's initial "Advance Estimate" from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Two main factors explain this confident outlook. First, the U.S. economy has shown consistent resilience. Even during periods of higher interest rates, growth has generally remained positive. A recession has been predicted many times since 2022 but has not materialized, leading markets to bet on the economy's underlying strength.
Second, the Federal Reserve's current fight against inflation is expected to be largely over by 2026. Most economists project the central bank will have cut interest rates well before then to support steady, if unspectacular, growth. The 1.0% threshold is also seen as a low bar. Since 2010, quarterly GDP growth has fallen below 1.0% only a handful of times outside of acute crises, making it a relatively easy target to clear during normal economic conditions.
The actual data will be released in late April 2026. Long before that, the forecast will shift based on incoming economic signals. Key indicators to watch throughout 2025 will be monthly jobs reports, consumer spending data, and business investment surveys. Any sustained drop in these areas could lower the odds.
The most significant near-term event is the path of Federal Reserve policy. If the Fed signals that interest rates will need to stay high for longer than currently expected to fully control inflation, forecasts for 2026 growth could become less certain. Major geopolitical events or financial market instability could also change the trajectory.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on long-term economic forecasts. They are often good at aggregating current expert sentiment, but their accuracy decreases the further out an event is. Unforeseen shocks over a two-year period can completely change the picture. For nearer-term GDP forecasts, within the next few quarters, these markets have been reasonably accurate. For Q1 2026, the high probability reflects a strong consensus on the current trend continuing, but it should be viewed as a snapshot of today's expectations, not a guaranteed outcome.
Prediction markets currently price a 92% probability that US real GDP will grow by more than 1.0% in Q1 2026. This price, found on Kalshi, indicates near-certainty among traders that the economy will avoid a near-stall or contraction in early 2026. A 92% chance is a strong consensus, suggesting the market views sub-1% growth as a significant outlier scenario. However, thin liquidity with only $77,000 in total volume across 14 markets means this consensus is not backed by heavy capital, making the price more susceptible to sharp moves on new information.
The high probability reflects a baseline expectation of continued, albeit moderate, economic expansion. The US economy has not recorded a sub-1% quarterly growth rate since the brief pandemic-era contractions, creating a powerful historical precedent. Current Federal Reserve policy aims for a soft landing, and markets are pricing in successful execution of that plan through 2025 and into 2026. Leading economic indicators, while mixed, generally do not signal an imminent sharp downturn. Traders are essentially betting that the economic momentum and institutional policy framework will be sufficient to clear a relatively low bar of 1% growth.
The primary risk to these odds is a forward shift in the timing of an expected economic slowdown. If leading data in late 2025, such as consecutive weak employment reports or a sustained drop in consumer confidence, points to a sharper deceleration, the 92% probability will fall rapidly. The market resolves based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's Advance Estimate, due around April 30, 2026. Key data releases in the preceding months, including Q4 2025 GDP and monthly inflation prints, will act as major catalysts. An unexpected geopolitical event or a financial stability shock could also force a dramatic repricing.
A notable 52-percentage-point spread exists between platforms. Kalshi shows a 92% "Yes" probability for growth over 1.0%, while Polymarket's equivalent contract trades around 40%. This massive discrepancy is almost entirely due to a critical difference in contract specifications. The Polymarket question asks if growth will exceed 2.5%, not 1.0%. The 40% price for the >2.5% threshold on Polymarket is logically consistent with a 92% price for >1.0% on Kalshi. It reflects the market's view that growth is very likely to be positive, but far less certain to be robust enough to clear a 2.5% hurdle. This is not an arbitrage opportunity but a function of different target growth rates.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether the United States real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by more than a specified threshold in the first quarter of 2026. The outcome is determined by the Advance Estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which provides the first official snapshot of quarterly economic performance. This estimate is seasonally adjusted and expressed as an annualized rate of change from the previous quarter. The market closes just before the data release and resolves based on the BEA's published figure to one decimal place. GDP growth is the primary measure of economic expansion or contraction, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. The Q1 2026 figure will be a critical early indicator of economic momentum for that year, influencing monetary policy, business investment decisions, and financial markets. Analysts and investors track these advance estimates closely because they often set the tone for economic narratives and policy responses. Interest in this specific quarter stems from its position following the 2024 presidential election and the potential for new fiscal policies to take effect, alongside the ongoing influence of Federal Reserve actions on interest rates and inflation.
U.S. GDP growth has shown significant volatility over recent decades, influenced by business cycles, financial crises, and policy responses. The Great Recession, triggered by the 2008 financial crisis, saw real GDP contract by 8.4% annualized in Q4 2008. The subsequent recovery was gradual, with quarterly growth averaging around 2.2% through the 2010s. The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented swing, with GDP plunging 31.2% annualized in Q2 2020, followed by a rapid rebound of 33.8% in Q3 2020. More recently, the post-pandemic period has been marked by high inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Growth in Q1 2024 was 1.6% annualized, a slowdown from the 3.4% rate in Q4 2023, reflecting the lagged impact of higher interest rates. The historical average for quarterly GDP growth since 1947 is approximately 3.2% annualized, but the post-2010 average has been closer to 2.2%, indicating a trend of slower potential growth. Q1 figures are often subject to larger revisions than other quarters due to seasonal adjustment challenges and early-year volatility, as seen when the initial Q1 2014 estimate of 0.1% growth was later revised up to a 2.1% contraction.
The GDP growth rate for Q1 2026 will signal the health of the U.S. economy at the start of a new presidential term, influencing confidence among consumers, businesses, and global investors. A strong reading could validate the economic policies of the incoming or re-elected administration, while a weak number might trigger calls for stimulus or shifts in monetary policy. For financial markets, the data directly impacts expectations for corporate earnings, bond yields, and the direction of the U.S. dollar. The figure also has immediate consequences for American households. Sustained growth supports job creation and wage increases, while a contraction raises the risk of layoffs and reduced income. For the Federal Reserve, the Q1 2026 data will be a critical input for deciding whether to adjust interest rates, affecting mortgage rates, car loans, and credit card APRs for millions of people.
As of mid-2024, the U.S. economy is experiencing moderating growth alongside persistent inflation. The Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate at a 23-year high, between 5.25% and 5.50%, after 11 hikes between March 2022 and July 2023. Fed officials have signaled that rate cuts are likely but are awaiting more consistent evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward their 2% target. The CBO's February 2024 forecast projects GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, accelerating to 2.2% in 2026. Private sector forecasts from institutions like the Blue Chip survey show a similar outlook, with expectations for growth to remain near or slightly below 2% in the near term before potentially improving.
Nominal GDP measures the value of all goods and services at current market prices. Real GDP adjusts nominal GDP for inflation, using a price index to reflect changes in the actual volume of production. The BEA's Advance Estimate for GDP growth, which resolves this market, reports the percentage change in real GDP.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis follows a consistent schedule, typically releasing the Advance Estimate for a quarter about four weeks after the quarter ends. For Q1 2026, the release is tentatively scheduled for late April 2026, most likely on a Thursday morning at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
Seasonally adjusted means the data has been statistically modified to remove predictable seasonal patterns, like holiday shopping or summer slowdowns. Annualized means the quarterly percentage change is multiplied by four to show what the growth rate would be if it continued for a full year, allowing for easier comparison across time periods.
The Advance Estimate is based on incomplete data and is subject to revision. The BEA revises the figure twice more as more complete information arrives. The average absolute revision between the Advance Estimate and the final estimate is about 0.5 percentage points, meaning the initial number provides a directionally correct but imprecise snapshot.
GDP is calculated as the sum of four components: Personal Consumption Expenditures (consumer spending), Gross Private Domestic Investment (business investment and housing), Net Exports of Goods and Services (exports minus imports), and Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment (federal, state, and local spending).
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
13 markets tracked
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41% | 43% | 2% |
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In Q1 2026 If real GDP, as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate, increases by more than X then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q1 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estim
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