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$21.64K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before Jan 1, 2027 If the number of Senators voting Yea on the next government funding bill before Jan 1, 2027 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. X government funding bill is an omnibus, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or a government-wide continuing resolution, CR. The vote must occur in the relevant full chamber, that is, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote. If no vote has occurred before the specified da
Prediction markets currently give about a 1 in 3 chance that 60 or more U.S. Senators will vote to confirm Donald Trump's future nominee for Federal Reserve Chair. This means traders collectively see it as more likely that the nominee falls short of the 60-vote threshold historically needed to overcome a Senate filibuster. The most probable outcome, according to the market, is a confirmation vote that succeeds with a simple majority but fails to reach that higher bipartisan total.
The forecast is shaped by recent political history and the Fed's role. The last two Fed Chairs, Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen, were confirmed with broad bipartisan support, receiving votes in the 80s. However, political polarization around economic appointments has increased. Traders are likely weighing two main factors.
First, the nominee's identity is unknown, creating uncertainty. A conventional, less controversial pick might still attract 60 votes. A nominee perceived as highly political or outside the mainstream on monetary policy could rally unified Democratic opposition.
Second, the Senate's partisan makeup matters. Republicans would need at least 10 Democrats to join them to reach 60 votes if all Republicans vote yes. In a narrowly divided Senate, securing that level of cross-party support is a significant hurdle, especially for a high-profile role that influences interest rates and the economy.
The key timeline begins after the November 2024 presidential election. If Trump wins, watch for the announcement of his intended nominee, likely in early 2025. The Senate Banking Committee will then hold confirmation hearings, which are a major signal. The tone of questioning from Democratic senators and any public statements from moderate senators from either party will indicate whether 60 votes are attainable. The final Senate floor vote, which must occur before the end of 2026, is the resolving event.
Prediction markets have a mixed but decent record on political confirmations. They often effectively aggregate the odds of known procedural hurdles and partisan dynamics. Their accuracy here depends heavily on an unknown: the future nominee. Once a name is put forward, the market odds will likely shift rapidly to incorporate new information about that person's profile and prospects. For now, the low probability assigned to a 60-vote outcome reflects a cautious bet on continued political division over a central banking role that has traditionally been somewhat insulated from partisan fights.
Prediction markets assign a low probability to a smooth confirmation for a future Trump-appointed Federal Reserve Chair. On Polymarket, the contract "Will 60 or more senators vote 'Yea'?" trades at 31¢, implying just a 31% chance. This price signals the market expects a contentious, largely partisan vote. The most probable outcome is a simple majority confirmation with fewer than 60 votes. A separate contract for "50-59 votes" trades at 58¢ on Polymarket, making it the clear favorite. The market sees a high-confirmation, low-consensus scenario.
The pricing reflects the entrenched partisan divide over the Federal Reserve and the specific conditions of a potential Trump presidency. Historically, recent Fed Chair confirmations have required significant bipartisan support; Jerome Powell was confirmed with 84 votes in 2022 and 80 votes in 2018. The market's skepticism about reaching 60 votes stems from two elements. First, a Trump nominee would likely prioritize a hawkish, deregulatory stance, alienating Democratic senators. Second, the Senate's composition is uncertain but may lack a filibuster-proof majority for the President's party, making every vote from the opposing party critical. The 50-59 vote range assumes the nominee clears the 51-vote threshold solely with Republican support, plus perhaps one or two Democrats from conservative states.
The odds hinge on the 2024 election outcome and the subsequent nominee's profile. A Republican sweep of the White House and Senate, especially with a margin of 52 or more seats, increases the chance of a party-line confirmation in the 50-59 range. However, if the nominee is a perceived moderate or a reappointment of Jerome Powell, bipartisan support could surge, making the 60+ vote contract undervalued. Conversely, a deeply controversial nominee with extreme monetary policy views could even jeopardize the simple majority, increasing the value of the "Less than 50" contract, currently priced at 11%. The nomination hearing, likely in early 2025, will be the first major test.
A minor arbitrage opportunity exists between Polymarket and Kalshi. For the key "50-59 votes" outcome, Polymarket prices it at 58¢ while Kalshi prices it at 57¢. This 1.3% spread likely stems from differing trader demographics and liquidity pools. Polymarket's global, crypto-native user base may be slightly more bullish on a partisan confirmation narrative. Kalshi's US-regulated platform might attract traders more attuned to traditional political hedging. The spread is tight enough that transaction costs erase most profit, but it indicates where slight sentiment differences lie.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will more than 84 Senators vote Yea on the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? | Kalshi | 24% |
Will between 75 and 79 Senators vote Yea on the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? | Kalshi | 21% |
Will between 80 and 84 Senators vote Yea on the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? | Kalshi | 19% |
Will between 70 and 74 Senators vote Yea on the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? | Kalshi | 18% |
Will between 60 and 64 Senators vote Yea on the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will between 65 and 69 Senators vote Yea on the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? | Kalshi | 11% |
Will between 55 and 59 Senators vote Yea on the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? | Kalshi | 7% |
Will fewer than 50 Senators vote Yea on the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will between 50 and 54 Senators vote Yea on the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? | Kalshi | 2% |
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